Who will have contributed more to the national deficit after their presidency

Llama 4 Scout

Vote: Joe bidens administration

The national deficit has been increasing under both administrations. However, Joe Biden's administration has proposed and implemented larger spending packages, such as the American Rescue Plan and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which are expected to have a more significant impact on the national deficit in the long term. Additionally, the economic conditions and policy priorities during Biden's presidency, including higher inflation and interest rates, may exacerbate the deficit growth.

GPT-5.4

Vote: Donald Trump's administration

A Trump’s administration added roughly $7.8 trillion to the national debt over one term, based on widely cited budget analyses. That includes the 2017 tax cuts, higher spending, and major COVID-era relief. Biden’s administration has also run large deficits, but across a comparable single term most estimates place the added debt lower than Trump’s total. Biden signed large spending packages, yet some COVID emergency costs had already been locked in before he took office. A key point is scale over completed time in office. Since the question asks who will have contributed more after their presidency, Trump’s full presidential term is already measurable and is generally estimated to have added more than Biden’s first term. So the stronger evidence supports Trump as the larger contributor.

Grok 4.1 Fast

Vote: Joe bidens administration

Donald Trump's administration (FY2017-FY2021) saw the national debt increase by approximately $7.8 trillion, largely due to tax cuts and the COVID-19 response in FY2020 ($3.1T deficit). Joe Biden's administration (FY2021-present) has already added about $7.7 trillion to the debt as of September 2024, with projections for a full term increase exceeding $8.3 trillion by January 2025, driven by ongoing COVID relief, infrastructure spending, student loan policies, and high deficits (e.g., FY2024: $1.8T). Nominal debt increase metrics clearly show Biden's term will contribute more to the cumulative national deficit after both presidencies end. Adjusting for inflation or GDP share reinforces this, as Biden's additions are occurring in a higher baseline economy.

Mistral Large

Vote: Donald Trump's administration

To assess which administration will have contributed more to the national deficit, we must examine fiscal policies, legislative actions, and economic conditions during their presidencies. Here’s a breakdown of key factors: **Tax Cuts and Spending Under Trump:** Donald Trump’s administration enacted the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in 2017, which significantly reduced corporate and individual tax rates. While proponents argued this would stimulate economic growth, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected the TCJA would add $1.9 trillion to the deficit over a decade, even after accounting for potential economic growth. Additionally, Trump signed multiple spending bills, including a bipartisan budget deal in 2018 that increased discretionary spending by hundreds of billions of dollars. The deficit grew from $585 billion in 2016 to $984 billion in 2019, before the pandemic. **Pandemic Response and Biden’s Policies:** Joe Biden’s administration inherited a deficit already expanded by COVID-19 relief measures, including the CARES Act and other stimulus packages passed under Trump. Biden’s American Rescue Plan (ARP) in 2021 added $1.9 trillion to the deficit, aimed at economic recovery and public health. However, the CBO estimates that the ARP’s long-term deficit impact will be partially offset by economic growth and expiring provisions. Biden has also proposed infrastructure and social spending bills, but many of these are either smaller in scale or include revenue-raising measures (e.g., higher corporate taxes) to offset costs. **Deficit Projections:** The CBO’s long-term projections suggest that the deficit will remain elevated under both administrations, but Trump’s policies—particularly the TCJA—are expected to have a more enduring impact due to their permanent tax cuts for corporations and high-income individuals. Biden’s policies, while expansive, are more targeted and include mechanisms to reduce their long-term deficit effects. **Conclusion:** While both administrations have contributed to deficit growth, Trump’s administration’s tax cuts and pre-pandemic spending increases laid a larger structural foundation for long-term deficit expansion. Biden’s policies, though significant, are more responsive to immediate crises and include offsets that mitigate their long-term impact.

Claude Opus 4.6

Vote: Donald Trump's administration

Donald Trump's administration contributed more to the national deficit than Joe Biden's administration based on available data and estimates. During Trump's four years (2017-2021), the national debt increased by approximately $7.8 trillion. Key drivers included the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (estimated to add $1.5-2 trillion over a decade), increased military and discretionary spending, and the massive COVID-19 relief spending including the $2.2 trillion CARES Act. While Biden's administration also saw significant deficit spending — including the American Rescue Plan ($1.9 trillion), the Inflation Reduction Act, and the infrastructure bill — deficits under Biden actually decreased from the record highs set in Trump's final year. The annual deficit fell from about $3.1 trillion in FY2020 to lower levels under Biden, though it remained elevated. Nonpartisan analyses from organizations like the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget have estimated that Trump-era policies added more to the debt than Biden-era policies when comparing legislation signed by each president. Trump's tax cuts in particular represent a long-term structural reduction in revenue that compounds over time. While COVID spending complicates the picture for both presidents, even setting aside pandemic relief, Trump's fiscal policies (particularly the tax cuts without corresponding spending cuts) represent a larger contribution to the structural deficit.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: Donald Trump's administration

Determining exactly how much any specific administration contributes to the national deficit involves complex, highly debated methodologies. Economists and non-partisan organizations differ on how to attribute baseline spending, interest costs, and emergency legislation, making direct comparisons difficult. For instance, both the Trump and Biden administrations oversaw massive federal spending in response to the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Non-partisan organizations like the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) have estimated that legislation enacted during the Trump administration added roughly $8.4 trillion to the 10-year national debt, which currently outpaces estimates of legislation enacted so far under the Biden administration. However, because President Biden's term is still ongoing, and macroeconomic factors like inflation and interest rates continue to affect the deficit, a definitive, universally accepted final comparison is not yet possible. Both administrations have contributed substantially to the national deficit through combinations of tax policies, infrastructure spending, and emergency pandemic relief.

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable leaned toward Donald Trump’s administration by a 4-2 margin, primarily citing the long-term structural impact of the 2017 tax cuts. While Claude Opus 4.6 and Mistral Large focused on the permanent reduction in federal revenue under Trump, a vocal minority led by Grok 4.1 Fast and Llama 4 Scout argued that President Biden’s nominal debt additions are on track to surpass his predecessor's by the end of his term.

No agreement after 1 rounds of discussion. Final vote: Joe bidens administration: 2, Donald Trump's administration: 4

Strongest Arguments

• Donald Trump's administration: The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act created a permanent structural deficit by significantly reducing revenue without corresponding spending cuts, contributing to a $7.8 trillion debt increase that outpaces current estimates for a comparable single term under Biden.
• Joe bidens administration: Nominal debt metrics indicate that the Biden administration is projected to add over $8.3 trillion to the national debt by January 2025, driven by massive packages like the American Rescue Plan and exacerbated by high interest rates.