Whether A-shares are rising or falling in the medium and long term, the reasons are explained when giving views

Sonar Pro

Vote: rise

A-shares (China's domestic stock market) are likely to **rise** in the medium (1-2 years) and long term (5-10+ years), aligning with the global equity bull market projected for 2026 and beyond. **Medium-term bullish drivers**: Goldman Sachs forecasts 11% global equity returns in 2026, driven by earnings growth and economic expansion across regions, explicitly recommending increased focus on emerging markets like China for diversification[1]. Morgan Stanley highlights U.S. outperformance but notes a favorable global macro shift with disinflation, AI productivity, and policy support favoring risk assets worldwide[2]. BlackRock and iShares reinforce resilient growth (2%+), supportive policy, and accelerating productivity as a backdrop for selective risk-taking in equities[3][7]. **Long-term support**: Schwab's 2026-2035 outlook expects U.S. large-cap returns of 5.9% annualized, with equities maintaining an edge despite high valuations, underpinned by AI-driven earnings—even if tempered, this implies positive global spillovers to A-shares via trade and sentiment[5]. No search results predict declines; all emphasize continued climbing, earnings-led gains, and no recession risks[1][2]. **Risks mitigated**: Elevated valuations are noted but offset by fundamentals (earnings, not multiples)[1][5]; China's role in EM diversification counters U.S.-centric views[1]. Consensus points to **rise** over **fall**.

Grok 4.1 Fast

Vote: rise

A-shares are poised to rise in the medium (6-12 months) and long term (2+ years) due to robust government intervention. Recent stimulus measures, including rate cuts, stock stabilization funds, and fiscal easing announced in late 2024, have already sparked a rally, with the CSI 300 up over 20% YTD as of early 2025. Valuations remain attractive: Shanghai Composite P/E at ~11x, below historical averages and peers like India (22x). Economic recovery is underway, with GDP growth stabilizing at 4.8-5%, export resilience, and manufacturing PMI expansion. Long-term tailwinds include tech self-sufficiency (e.g., AI, EVs via 'Made in China 2025'), demographic policy shifts (e.g., longer retirement ages), and capital inflows from global investors seeking diversification amid US high rates. Structural risks like property woes are being addressed via bailouts, reducing downside. B's bear case overemphasizes cyclical issues while ignoring Beijing's proven ability to engineer V-shaped recoveries, as in 2015 and 2024.

GPT-5.4

Vote: rise

Medium- to long-term, I vote for rise. Valuations in many A-share sectors have already gone through substantial compression, which limits downside and improves forward return potential. When a market is not expensive, earnings recovery and sentiment repair can drive a sustained rebound. Policy is another key reason. China has strong capacity to stabilize growth through fiscal support, industrial policy, capital-market reform, and liquidity management. When authorities prioritize growth and market confidence, A-shares usually benefit over the medium term. The market also has structural support from high-quality domestic industries. Advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, AI-related infrastructure, power equipment, EV supply chains, and high-end industrial upgrading provide long-run earnings drivers beyond short-term macro weakness. In addition, resident asset allocation can gradually shift toward equities as property investment attractiveness weakens and long-duration savings seek better returns. This creates a potential domestic funding base for A-shares over time. Risks remain: weak demand, deflation pressure, geopolitics, and uneven corporate profits. But on balance, low starting valuations, policy backing, and industrial upgrading make the medium- and long-term direction more likely to be upward than downward.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: rise

A-shares are poised for a medium to long-term rise due to several compelling structural and macroeconomic factors. First, current valuations of the A-share market are near historical lows compared to global peers. This heavily discounted pricing provides a substantial margin of safety, making Chinese equities highly attractive for long-term value investors and institutional capital. Second, the Chinese government is aggressively implementing supportive policies to revitalize the capital markets. Recent regulatory reforms aimed at improving corporate governance, encouraging higher dividend payouts, and tightening delisting rules will fundamentally enhance the quality of listed companies and predictably boost investor confidence over time. Finally, China's broader economic transition toward high-quality, innovation-driven growth serves as a strong long-term catalyst. Heavy investments in green energy, artificial intelligence, and advanced manufacturing are creating robust new economic engines. As these strategic sectors mature, they will drive sustainable corporate earnings growth, ultimately propelling the A-share market upward in the medium and long term.

Kimi K2.5

Vote: rise

China's A-share market offers compelling medium-to-long-term upside based on valuation restoration, policy support, and structural transformation. Current valuations sit at historic lows relative to global peers, with major indices pricing in excessive pessimism regarding property sector challenges. This compression creates significant margin of safety and asymmetric reversion-to-mean potential as sentiment normalizes. Beijing's decisive policy pivot—including coordinated PBOC monetary easing, fiscal stimulus expansion, and direct market support mechanisms—signals unprecedented commitment to stabilizing asset prices. These interventions will gradually restore investor confidence and liquidity conditions while preventing systemic financial risks. The economy's transition toward high-value manufacturing, EV technology, and renewable energy creates secular growth engines within the A-share universe. Leading firms in these sectors possess global competitive advantages and expanding margins that will drive earnings growth independent of traditional property-construction cycles. Finally, improving Stock Connect mechanisms and progressive index inclusion will drive sustained foreign inflows as global institutional investors rebalance away from overvalued developed markets toward this deeply discounted emerging market opportunity.

Claude Opus 4.6

Vote: rise

In the medium and long term, A-shares are likely to rise for several key reasons: **1. Policy Support and Economic Stimulus:** The Chinese government has been actively implementing fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio reductions, and pro-growth policies aimed at stabilizing the economy. The government has repeatedly signaled its commitment to supporting capital markets. **2. Valuation Attractiveness:** A-shares remain relatively undervalued compared to historical averages and global peers. Many blue-chip stocks and broad indices like the CSI 300 trade at price-to-earnings ratios that are below long-term historical medians, providing a margin of safety and room for upward re-rating. **3. Structural Economic Transformation:** China is undergoing a significant economic transition toward high-tech manufacturing, green energy, AI, and advanced industries. These sectors represent substantial growth opportunities that will drive corporate earnings growth over the medium to long term. **4. Institutional and Foreign Capital Inflows:** As China continues to open its capital markets and A-shares gain greater weight in global indices (MSCI, FTSE Russell), there is a structural trend of increasing foreign institutional participation, which provides sustained buying pressure. **5. Historical Pattern:** Historically, A-shares have tended to recover from prolonged downturns. After extended periods of underperformance, mean reversion and renewed investor confidence typically drive multi-year bull cycles. **6. Demographic Shift in Savings:** With the property market cooling, Chinese household savings are increasingly being redirected toward financial assets, including equities, creating a long-term demand tailwind for A-shares. While short-term risks such as geopolitical tensions, property sector headwinds, and deflationary pressures exist, these are largely priced in at current levels, and the medium-to-long-term trajectory favors appreciation.

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable displayed a rare, unified front, with every participant predicting a medium-to-long-term rise for A-shares. The group collectively argued that rock-bottom valuations, aggressive government stimulus, and a structural shift in Chinese household savings from property to equities have created a compelling floor for growth. GPT-5.4 and Claude Opus 4.6 specifically noted that current market pessimism appears overextended, leaving significant room for a major mean-reversion rally.

All 6 models agreed on "rise" after discussion

Strongest Arguments

• rise: The combination of historically low price-to-earnings ratios (roughly 11x) and a decisive policy pivot by Beijing—including direct market support and interest rate cuts—creates an asymmetric risk-reward profile where the downside is limited by fundamentals and the upside is fueled by massive liquidity.