What's the future of BRICS by 2030, and by 2040?

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Vote: Continue to grow in diplomatic influence

By 2030, BRICS will have successfully expanded its membership and institutionalised its mechanisms for financial cooperation (like the New Development Bank), making it a credible platform for the Global South. I do not see it displacing existing structures, but its diplomatic influence will grow as it provides an alternative forum for non-Western powers. By 2040, this trajectory continues, cementing it as a major voice, though 'dominant model' (E) is an overreach given internal divergences and the resilience of other frameworks.

Gemini 3.5 Flash

Vote: Continue to grow in diplomatic influence

By 2030 and 2040, BRICS is highly likely to 'Continue to grow in diplomatic influence'. The recent expansion of the bloc (BRICS+) demonstrates a strong demand among emerging markets and developing countries (EMDCs) for a multipolar alternative to Western-dominated financial and political institutions like the G7 and the IMF. While internal geopolitical friction—particularly between India and China—and the lack of a highly integrated security or economic framework will prevent it from 'Becomes the dominant model for diplomacy' (Option E), its economic weight is undeniable. Collectively, BRICS nations already surpass the G7 in GDP purchasing power parity (PPP), a trend that will only solidify by 2040. Furthermore, the group's focus on diversifying away from US dollar dependency, fostering local currency trade, and coordinating on global governance reform ensures it will remain a crucial platform for hedging against Western economic hegemony, ensuring its continued growth in diplomatic influence.

Grok 4.3

Vote: Continue to grow in diplomatic influence

BRICS has already expanded with new members and is building alternative institutions. By 2030 it will consolidate diplomatic weight among Global South nations. By 2040 its growing economic and political networks point to continued influence rather than dominance or decline.

Claude Opus 4.7

Vote: Continue to grow in diplomatic influence

BRICS has demonstrated clear momentum: it expanded in 2024 to include new members (UAE, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia), has a growing partner-country tier, and continues to attract interest from Global South nations seeking alternatives to Western-led institutions. By 2030, this trajectory points to greater diplomatic weight, expanded membership, and incremental progress on initiatives like local-currency trade settlement and the New Development Bank. However, becoming the 'dominant model for diplomacy' by 2040 is unlikely given internal contradictions: China-India rivalry, divergent political systems, varying economic interests, and the absence of binding institutional mechanisms comparable to the EU or G7. BRICS works precisely because it is loose and non-ideological — that same feature caps its ability to dominate. Disappearance or irrelevance contradicts current expansion trends, and 'remains as it is' ignores the obvious institutional evolution underway. Continued growth in diplomatic influence is the most realistic projection for both 2030 and 2040.

GPT-5.5

Vote: Continue to grow in diplomatic influence

By 2030, BRICS is likely to continue expanding its diplomatic influence because it gives major non-Western and middle-power states a useful forum to coordinate on trade, development finance, sanctions resistance, currency diversification, and reform of global institutions. By 2040, it may be larger and more visible, but not necessarily cohesive enough to become "the dominant model for diplomacy". Its members have divergent interests—China-India rivalry, differing ties to the West, energy-importer versus energy-exporter priorities—which limits its ability to act as a unified bloc. So the strongest forecast is "Continue to grow in diplomatic influence": BRICS becomes more important as a platform for multipolar bargaining, but it does not replace existing institutions or become the single dominant diplomatic model.

Kimi K2.6

Vote: Continue to grow in diplomatic influence

BRICS has already demonstrated a clear trajectory of expansion and increasing relevance, growing from five to ten members and representing a major share of global GDP and population. The bloc serves a distinct diplomatic function as a platform for the Global South, which addresses a real demand in the international system that Western-led institutions do not fully meet. While internal contradictions—such as China-India border tensions and differing political systems—make it unlikely to become a monolithic dominant force, these same divisions also prevent it from disappearing or becoming irrelevant. The network effect of its expanding membership and its focus on practical issues like trade settlement alternatives will sustain diplomatic momentum through 2030 and 2040. Options A and B underestimate the structural demand for non-Western diplomatic platforms. Option C ignores the active expansion already underway. Option E overstates the cohesion and capacity of the group to displace existing Western-led institutions entirely. Therefore, 'Continue to grow in diplomatic influence' is the most realistic assessment.

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable reached an immediate and unanimous consensus, with all six models—Claude Opus 4.7, Gemini 3.5 Flash, GPT-5.5, Grok 4.3, Kimi K2.6, and DeepSeek V4 Pro—predicting that BRICS will continue to grow in diplomatic influence (Option D) through 2040. The models collectively identified the group as a vital alternative for the Global South, though they were careful to note that internal rivalries between China and India effectively cap its potential to become the world's 'dominant' diplomatic model. Claude Opus 4.7 provided a particularly sharp observation, noting that the very 'loose and non-ideological' nature that allows BRICS to expand is exactly what prevents it from achieving the institutional cohesion necessary to displace Western-led frameworks.

All 6 models agreed on "Continue to grow in diplomatic influence" after discussion

Strongest Arguments

• Continue to grow in diplomatic influence: The bloc serves a distinct diplomatic function as a platform for the Global South, addressing a structural demand for non-Western diplomatic alternatives that ensures momentum through its expanding membership and focus on practical trade settlement issues.