What character is likely to get in to the next Smash Bros

GPT-5.5

Answer: Waluigi remains the most likely character to get into the next Smash Bros.

I am maintaining my previous position because the strongest arguments from the other responses reinforce the Waluigi case rather than overturn it. Grok 4.20 and Gemini 3.1 Pro both point to the same core pattern: Smash has often rewarded long-running fan campaigns for characters like Ridley and King K. Rool, and Waluigi is now the most obvious remaining Nintendo-owned example of that phenomenon. The argument for Master Chief is plausible, especially given Microsoft and Nintendo’s warmer relationship, but I do not find it more likely than Waluigi. A third-party icon like Master Chief would be a huge reveal, yet he still involves licensing, brand-fit questions, and a more complicated relationship with Nintendo’s family-friendly crossover identity. By contrast, Waluigi is simple to approve, instantly recognizable to Nintendo fans, and already deeply associated with the Mario spin-off ecosystem. Waluigi also gives Nintendo an easy marketing win. His exclusion has become part of Smash culture, and finally adding him would generate major attention without needing to negotiate a massive external deal. A new Smash game would be the cleanest opportunity to reset Assist Trophy assumptions and turn him into a full fighter. So while characters like Master Chief, Crash Bandicoot, Doom Slayer, a new Pokémon, or a Xenoblade representative are all credible possibilities, Waluigi still feels like the most likely single pick: high-demand, first-party, meme-famous, roster-relevant, and easy for Nintendo to sell.

Claude Opus 4.7 (changed mind)

Answer: I'm updating my pick — Waluigi is genuinely the most likely newcomer for the next Smash Bros., though Master Chief remains my top third-party prediction.

The other models make a compelling case I underweighted. The historical pattern of Smash using new base-game installments to finally promote heavily-requested Assist Trophies and background characters into playable fighters is real and well-established: Ridley, King K. Rool, Little Mac, Isabelle, and Daisy all followed that exact arc. Waluigi is the single most prominent character still stuck in that pipeline, and his exclusion has become a cultural touchstone the marketing team would be foolish not to capitalize on. I was anchored too heavily on the 'iconic third-party newcomer' trend from Ultimate's DLC cycle, but that's specifically a DLC pattern. Base rosters historically lean on first-party additions, and Nintendo-owned characters avoid the licensing complexity that makes third-party picks risky for launch reveals. A Waluigi reveal trailer would be a guaranteed viral moment in a way Master Chief — while historically significant — might not match for Nintendo's core audience. That said, I don't think this is either/or. The next Smash will likely have many newcomers, and I still believe Master Chief or another major Xbox-era icon is highly probable somewhere in the lifecycle (likely DLC). But for the single most likely newcomer question, the combination of fan demand, easy licensing, marketing impact, and clear historical precedent makes Waluigi the stronger bet. Credit to the convergent reasoning from the other models for surfacing the base-roster-vs-DLC distinction I had glossed over.

Grok 4.20

Answer: Waluigi is the character most likely to get into the next Smash Bros.

My original assessment that Waluigi is the strongest candidate remains unchanged after reviewing the other models. Both GPT-5.5 and Gemini 3.1 Pro reached the same conclusion with overlapping reasoning centered on sustained fan demand, his status as a prominent Nintendo-owned Mario character, and the historical precedent of fan-favorite requests like Ridley and King K. Rool eventually being promoted to playable fighters. These parallel arguments reinforce the core logic: Waluigi's meme status, Assist Trophy history, and rich moveset potential from decades of sports and party games make him a high-impact, low-risk addition that Nintendo can use to generate immediate hype without third-party negotiations. Claude Opus 4.7's case for Master Chief is thoughtful and highlights improving Microsoft-Nintendo relations, yet it underweights Nintendo's pattern of filling base rosters primarily with its own universe before adding more outsiders. While a Halo representative would be symbolically significant, Waluigi better matches the established trajectory for the next title's early reveals and marketing.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Answer: Waluigi remains the most likely character to join the next Super Smash Bros. roster, as base-game reveals traditionally prioritize fulfilling long-standing fan requests for internally owned characters over third-party guests.

I am maintaining my stance that Waluigi is the most probable addition to the next core roster. While Claude Opus 4.7 makes a compelling case for Master Chief by highlighting Microsoft's strong relationship with Nintendo and the franchise's recent trend of adding globally recognized third-party icons, this argument overlooks the distinct difference between base-game newcomers and post-launch DLC fighters. Third-party mega-icons—such as Joker, Steve, Sephiroth, and Sora—are almost exclusively reserved for DLC cycles. They require complex, time-consuming licensing negotiations and are strategically deployed as premium content to drive long-term engagement and sell Fighter Passes. In contrast, the initial hype and marketing for a new Smash Bros. base game traditionally rely on delivering highly requested, internally owned legacy characters. Nintendo used Ridley, King K. Rool, and Isabelle to drive foundational excitement for Ultimate because they were historically significant to the existing fanbase. Waluigi is arguably the final "white whale" in this specific first-party category. Furthermore, as GPT-5.5 and Grok 4.20 correctly note, Waluigi has decades of Mario sports and party game history to inspire a highly unique, eccentric moveset. Because he is entirely owned by Nintendo, his inclusion requires no shared revenue or complex legal hurdles. When the developers need a legally simple, universally recognized "break the internet" reveal to launch the next installment, Waluigi is the undeniable frontrunner.

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable reached a unanimous consensus that Waluigi’s time has finally come, citing his massive meme status and first-party status. While Claude Opus 4.7 initially championed Master Chief as a historic third-party addition, it eventually joined GPT-5.5, Grok 4.20, and Gemini 3.1 Pro in concluding that base-game rosters prioritize internal Nintendo icons over complex external licenses.

All 4 models agreed