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AI Roundtable Poll · 6 models

True first proto world war

Result: Majority — Byzantine-Sasanian War and Tang-Gokturk War (4/6 votes)

Options

Model Responses

Sonar Pro

Vote: Byzantine-Sasanian War and Tang-Gokturk War

The query seeks the 'true first proto world war,' implying the earliest conflict resembling a global or multi-continental war, before conventionally recognized ones like the Seven Years' War or WWI. Option A (Byzantine-Sasanian War ~602-628 AD and Tang-Gokturk War ~627-630 AD) represents synchronized major conflicts across Eurasia: the Byzantine-Sasanian War devastated the Mediterranean world from North Africa to Mesopotamia, while the Tang-Gokturk War spanned East Asia, involving China, Central Asia, and steppe nomads. Together, they form a 'proto world war' connecting Europe, Middle East, and Asia in near-contemporary crises, predating other options by centuries. Option B (Mongol Conquests 1206-1368 and Toluid Civil Wars 1260-1264) is later (13th century) and primarily a single empire's expansion/internal strife, not a balanced global proto-war. Option C (Thirty Years' War 1618-1648) is European-focused, not proto-global. Search results [1] highlight even earlier Bronze Age collapses (~1250 BC) as massive scaled conflicts across Europe, Mediterranean, North Africa, Middle East—supporting the 'proto' concept for ancient multi-regional wars, but A is the earliest listed option fitting this pattern. No results contradict A's historical simultaneity and scope.

GPT-5.4

Vote: Mongol Conquests and Toluid Civil Wars

If the standard is a true "proto-world war," the Mongol Conquests and the Toluid Civil Wars fit best because they connected and militarized a huge share of Eurasia in one interacting conflict system. The Mongol wars were not just one regional struggle. They spanned East Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, involving China, the Islamic world, the steppe, Kievan Rus', Korea, and states deep into Europe. That geographic spread is much closer to a world-scale war than the other options. The Toluid Civil Wars also matter because they turned the Mongol Empire's internal succession struggle into a transcontinental conflict across multiple fronts. Different khanates and subject peoples were drawn into one linked political-military crisis. Option C, the Thirty Years' War, was hugely important but still primarily European, despite colonial side theaters through the wider Habsburg-Bourbon struggle. It is better seen as a major continental war than a proto-world war. Option A combines major simultaneous wars, but they were not part of one integrated conflict network on the scale of the Mongol imperial wars. They were parallel large wars, not a single Eurasian war system. So B is the strongest choice because it is the earliest option that most plausibly qualifies as a truly transregional, interconnected, near-world-system war.

Grok 4.20

Vote: Byzantine-Sasanian War and Tang-Gokturk War

The Byzantine-Sasanian War (602-628 CE) and simultaneous Tang-Gokturk conflicts in East Asia form the earliest trans-Eurasian clash of major powers. They spanned from the Mediterranean to China, weakening both the Byzantine/Persian empires and the Turkic khanates. This linkage through Central Asian alliances and trade routes created ripple effects across the known world, arguably the first proto-world war by scale and timing. Option B (Mongols) and C (Thirty Years' War) occurred centuries later, making A the true first by historical precedence.

Kimi K2.5

Vote: Thirty Years' War

The Thirty Years' War represents the first true proto-world war because it fundamentally altered the balance of power across the entire European continent and had global economic repercussions. Unlike the geographically separated conflicts in Option A or the imperial expansion of Option B, the Thirty Years' War featured a multilateral coalition system resembling modern world wars: Catholic powers versus Protestant powers with shifting alliances involving the Habsburgs, France, Spain, Sweden, Denmark, and numerous German states. This created a continental-wide conflict zone rather than isolated regional wars. Furthermore, the war's scope extended beyond Europe through the destruction of global trade networks and the involvement of colonial powers drawing resources from the Americas. The scale of devastation—killing up to 8 million people through combat, famine, and plague—approximates the total war characteristics of the 20th century world wars. While the Mongol Conquests were geographically vast, they constituted imperial expansion rather than a systemic war between established state actors with defined alliances, and the 7th century conflicts lacked the interconnected diplomatic coordination that makes the Thirty Years' War recognizable as a precursor to modern global conflicts.

Claude Opus 4

Vote: Byzantine-Sasanian War and Tang-Gokturk War

The Byzantine-Sasanian Wars (602-628 AD) and the contemporaneous Tang-Göktürk Wars represent what could be called the 'true first proto world war' because they involved the two greatest empires of the Western world (Byzantine and Sasanian Persia) fighting a devastating total war while simultaneously the Tang Dynasty and the Göktürk Khaganate clashed across Central and East Asia. These conflicts were interconnected through the Silk Road and diplomatic networks spanning from Constantinople to Chang'an. The Göktürks actually allied with Byzantium against the Sasanians, creating a genuinely transcontinental strategic framework. The wars involved multiple civilizations across Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia, and East Asia — arguably the widest geographic scope of any pre-modern conflict system. The Byzantine-Sasanian War of 602-628 exhausted both empires so thoroughly that neither could resist the subsequent Arab-Muslim conquests, reshaping world history. Combined with the Tang-Göktürk conflicts that reshaped Central Asia, these simultaneous wars across Eurasia constitute the earliest plausible candidate for a 'proto world war.' While the Mongol Conquests (Option B) were certainly global in scope, they were more of a unilateral conquest rather than a multi-sided war between peer great powers. The Thirty Years' War (Option C) is sometimes called the first world war, but it was primarily European. The interconnected 7th-century conflicts spanning the entire breadth of Eurasia better fit the concept of a 'true first' proto world war.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: Byzantine-Sasanian War and Tang-Gokturk War

While the Seven Years' War is widely recognized as the first global war, the title of the 'true first proto-world war' belongs to the interconnected Eurasian conflicts of the early 7th century: the Byzantine-Sasanian War and the Tang-Gokturk War. During this period, the devastating Byzantine-Sasanian War (602–628) became inextricably linked with the geopolitics of the Eurasian steppe. To survive the Persian onslaught, the Byzantines formed a crucial alliance with the Western Turkic Khaganate (the Gokturks), who opened a second front by invading the Sassanid Empire from the Caucasus (the Third Perso-Turkic War). Simultaneously, the vast Gokturk Khaganate was embroiled in a massive existential conflict with the newly established Tang Dynasty in China. Because these overlapping wars and alliances involved the undisputed superpowers of the era—Byzantium, Sassanid Persia, the Gokturks, and Tang China—they created an unbroken chain of interconnected warfare spanning from the Mediterranean Sea to the Pacific Ocean, making it the first trans-continental 'world' war in recorded history.

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable largely identified the interconnected 7th-century Eurasian conflicts as the first 'proto world war,' citing a sophisticated web of alliances that linked the Mediterranean to the Pacific. Claude Opus 4 and Gemini 3.1 Pro led the majority by highlighting how the Byzantine-Sasanian and Tang-Gokturk wars created a single strategic theater, while GPT-5.4 and Kimi K2.5 offered compelling dissents centered on Mongol integration and the modern state-system of the Thirty Years' War. Despite the strong leaning toward the ancient world, the session ended without a unanimous consensus as the models prioritized different definitions of global interconnectedness.

No agreement after 1 rounds of discussion. Final vote: Byzantine-Sasanian War and Tang-Gokturk War: 4, Mongol Conquests and Toluid Civil Wars: 1, Thirty Years' War: 1

Strongest Arguments

  • Byzantine-Sasanian War and Tang-Gokturk War: These conflicts were interconnected through the Silk Road and diplomatic networks where the Göktürks allied with Byzantium against the Sasanians, creating a genuinely transcontinental strategic framework spanning from Constantinople to Chang'an.
  • Mongol Conquests and Toluid Civil Wars: The Mongol Conquests were the earliest option to qualify as a truly transregional, interconnected world-system war, turning internal succession struggles into a linked military crisis across multiple fronts and continents.
  • Thirty Years' War: The Thirty Years' War featured a multilateral coalition system between established state actors with global economic repercussions and total war characteristics that predate 20th-century conflicts.