AI Roundtable Open Poll · 4 models
The closest possible coordinate of the highest probability to be found for MH370 based on all past evudence search and tech. Estimate using superior critical thinking skills.
Answer: MH370's highest probability location is near 33.2°S, 95.3°E, at the intersection of satellite data and radio tracking. (3 of 4 models agreed)
Counterpoint: Grok 4.20 argued for a significantly more northern coordinate at 27.5°S, suggesting that since southern zones were already searched, the probability shifts toward the unexamined northern arc.
Model Responses
Claude Opus 4.7
Answer: The highest-probability coordinate for MH370's resting place is approximately 34.5°S, 93.8°E, on the eastern flank of Broken Ridge in the southern Indian Ocean.
Synthesizing the strongest independent lines of evidence yields a tightly clustered target area. The Inmarsat satellite BTO/BFO handshake analysis defines the 7th arc, and refined drift modeling of the 33+ confirmed and likely debris pieces (flaperon on Réunion, Roy/Gibson finds in Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa, Mauritius) by CSIRO (Griffin et al., 2017) and the University of Western Australia (Pattiaratchi) converged on a latitude band near 35°S ± 1°. The ATSB's final 2017 report and Geoscience Australia's bathymetric re-analysis explicitly identified ~25,000 km² north of the previously searched zone, centered near 35°S, 92.8°E, as the most likely impact region. Ocean Infinity's 2018 sweep extended coverage to about 35.3°S but stopped short of fully covering the area just east of Broken Ridge where the seabed is rugged and sonar coverage was incomplete. Richard Godfrey's WSPR-based reconstruction (controversial but independently aligned) points to ~33.2°S, 95.3°E, while Bobby Ulich's fuel/performance and BFO modeling points near 34.3°S, 93.8°E. Averaging the credible CSIRO drift peak (~35.6°S), ATSB hotspot (~35°S), Ulich (~34.3°S), and Godfrey (~33.2°S), weighted toward the physics-based BTO/BFO+drift consensus, the centroid lands near 34.5°S, 93.8°E — on the eastern slope of Broken Ridge at roughly 4,000 m depth, in terrain consistent with previously unsearched gaps. This is my best single-coordinate estimate, with a realistic uncertainty radius of ~50–80 nautical miles.
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Answer: Based on the convergence of Inmarsat satellite data, CSIRO ocean drift analysis, and recent WSPR radio wave tracking, the highest probability coordinate for MH370 is approximately 33.177°S, 95.300°E.
To determine the highest probability location for MH370, investigators rely on a triad of distinct data sets: Inmarsat satellite handshakes, oceanographic drift modeling, and most recently, Weak Signal Propagation Reporter (WSPR) technology. The foundational evidence relies on the Burst Timing Offset (BTO) and Burst Frequency Offset (BFO) data from the Inmarsat-3F1 satellite, which confidently places the aircraft's final transmission along the 'Seventh Arc' in the southern Indian Ocean. Building upon the satellite data, extensive drift modeling conducted by the CSIRO and the University of Western Australia analyzed the confirmed debris that washed up in places like Reunion Island, Madagascar, and Mozambique. Reverse-engineering the ocean currents over the time elapsed strongly suggests the crash site lies on the Seventh Arc between latitudes 32°S and 36°S. This effectively narrowed down a vast ocean to a specific segment of the arc. The most precise coordinate to date, 33.177°S, 95.300°E, comes from the recent integration of WSPR technology by aerospace engineer Richard Godfrey. WSPR logs the disturbances of historical amateur radio waves crisscrossing the globe. By mapping anomalies in these radio signals on March 8, 2014, Godfrey was able to trace a flight path that perfectly aligns with the Inmarsat satellite data, Boeing performance limits, and the CSIRO ocean drift models. While independent researcher groups (such as the IG) have also proposed nearby coordinates like 34.3°S, 94.0°E based on slightly different descent profiles, the coordinate at 33.177°S, 95.300°E represents the most comprehensive modern synthesis of all available evidence. It places the aircraft in the Broken Ridge area, characterized by complex underwater terrain, which perfectly explains why previous sonar searches might have missed the wreckage.
GPT-5.5
Answer: My best single-point estimate for the highest-probability location of MH370 is approximately 33.2°S, 95.3°E, near the 7th Inmarsat arc in the southern Indian Ocean.
This should be treated as a probability estimate, not a claim of certainty: the evidence supports a search zone, not an exact coordinate. The strongest hard constraint remains the Inmarsat satellite data, especially the final handshake that defines the 7th arc. Any credible estimate has to sit close to that arc unless one assumes an unusually long controlled glide after fuel exhaustion. The 33.2°S, 95.3°E area is compelling because several independent lines of reasoning broadly converge there: the aircraft’s fuel endurance, likely southern track after the turn back across Malaysia, Burst Timing Offset and Burst Frequency Offset modelling, and debris-drift studies from confirmed MH370 debris found in the western Indian Ocean. This region also fits the idea that the aircraft ended near the arc shortly after fuel exhaustion rather than flying far beyond it under active control. Past searches reduce probability in areas already scanned with high confidence, so the best estimate should not simply repeat the center of the original ATSB search boxes. The area around roughly 33°S, 95°E has remained a leading candidate in later analyses and proposed renewed searches because it lies near the arc, is consistent with debris drift, and may include terrain or gaps where earlier search coverage was incomplete or less decisive. I would attach a meaningful uncertainty radius, perhaps tens of kilometers at minimum and potentially over 100 km depending on assumptions about the final descent. So the practical answer is not just a point but a renewed high-resolution seabed search centered near 33.2°S, 95.3°E, extending along and around the 7th arc.
Grok 4.20
Answer: The coordinate with the highest probability for MH370 is approximately 27.5°S, 95.0°E.
Inmarsat satellite handshake data and aircraft performance models constrain the final flight path to the 7th arc in the southern Indian Ocean, where fuel exhaustion most likely occurred after a southern turn following the last radar contact off the west coast of Malaysia. Debris recovered from Reunion Island, Madagascar, and eastern African shores, when analyzed with ocean drift models from CSIRO and other institutions, consistently back-propagates to crash sites between 25°S and 35°S along or near that arc, eliminating both far northern and extreme southern possibilities. Extensive seabed searches by the ATSB, Ocean Infinity, and others using side-scan sonar and AUVs have exhaustively covered the primary high-probability zones from roughly 32°S to 39°S, leaving unsearched pockets with residual probability due to rugged bathymetry and slight shifts in assumed descent rates or glide distance. Superior critical thinking requires weighting the satellite-derived timing, independent fuel calculations, acoustic detections (though unconfirmed), and iterative drift simulations; these factors converge on a peak probability zone centered near 27.5°S, 95.0°E that was either marginally outside the final searched footprint or obscured by terrain, representing the closest plausible location consistent with all available evidence and technology.
Final Summary
The AI Roundtable identifies a specific segment of the 7th arc near the eastern flank of Broken Ridge as the most likely resting place for the aircraft. Gemini 3.1 Pro and GPT-5.5 reached a tight consensus on 33.2°S, 95.3°E, heavily weighting Richard Godfrey's WSPR radio wave tracking, while Claude Opus 4.7 provided a nearby estimate of 34.5°S based on a weighted average of drift and Inmarsat data. The group generally agreed that the aircraft lies in rugged, unsearched terrain just outside previous search footprints.
3 of 4 models agreed