Simulate the results of the 2027 polish elections. Who will come to power?

Qwen 3 235B

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Current polling trends and political momentum in Poland suggest a fragile but resilient opposition coalition centered around KO (PO) maintaining a lead over PiS, though without an outright majority. This makes a coalition government the most probable outcome. The Civic Coalition has demonstrated an ability to form stable alliances with centrist and left-wing parties, including Lewica and Razem. These parties share a pro-EU, reform-oriented agenda that contrasts with PiS’s nationalist approach, making cooperation more feasible than fragmentation on the right. Recent regional elections have shown increased coordination among opposition parties, improving their chances of governing together. While PiS remains strong, especially in rural areas, it is increasingly polarizing. Governing alone (option C) is unlikely due to projected seat counts. Any coalition involving KKP (Braun) or extremist factions (options E and F) would face significant domestic and EU-level resistance, making those scenarios less viable. D is unlikely because KWiN lacks the structure for stable governance. B represents the most politically stable and electorally plausible outcome given current dynamics.

Qwen 3 VL 30B

Vote: PiS in coalition with KWiN (confederation)

Based on current political trends in Poland, PiS (Law and Justice) remains a dominant force with strong support among conservative and rural voters. While KO (Civic Platform) has shown resilience, it is unlikely to secure a majority alone. The 2027 elections are likely to result in a fragmented parliament, making coalitions necessary. PiS is most likely to form a coalition with KWiN (Confederation), a right-wing nationalist party that shares ideological alignment with PiS. This coalition would allow PiS to consolidate power while maintaining its core base. The likelihood of PiS forming a coalition with KKP (Braun) is lower due to internal party dynamics and the more radical stance of Braun's faction, which could alienate moderate voters. Therefore, the most probable outcome is PiS in coalition with KWiN.

Phi-4 Multimodal

Vote: PiS in coalition with both KWiN AND KKP (Braun)

Assuming the Law and Justice party (PiS) continues its political trends and converges with other center-right parties such as the Confederation and Civic Platform, the most dominant party, PiS, would likely be able to form a stable government. Including both KWiN (Confederation) and KKP (Grzegorz Braun's Union) in its coalition could provide PiS with a broader electoral base and reduce internal dissent, which might be necessary for a strong, stable governance. This comprehensive alliance could therefore be the most plausible projection for the 2027 Polish elections.

Nemotron Nano 12B

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

In the 2027 Polish elections, the opposition coalition KO (supported by ex-Lewica and Razem) is likely to gain over 50% of the Sejm seats. This would enable KO to secure a simple majority without needing coalition partners, ensuring PiS is sidelined from power. Recent polls suggest KO could win around 35-40% of the vote, consolidating enough parliamentary seats to govern independently, especially in a deeply polarized political landscape where PiS struggles to rebuild its coalition strength after the 2023 elections.

Llama 3.3 70B

Vote: PiS in coalition with KWiN (confederation)

Given the current political landscape in Poland, it's plausible that PiS could maintain its influence. However, forming a coalition is often a path to securing a stronger majority. Among the options provided, coalition with KWiN (confederation) seems like a feasible strategy for PiS to broaden its support base without compromising its core ideologies extensively. This partnership could appeal to a broader segment of the electorate, potentially leading to a more stable government.

Llama 4 Scout

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

The 2027 Polish elections are likely to be influenced by recent political trends and voter preferences. KO (PO) has been a strong opposition force, and forming a coalition with Lewica and/or Razem could strengthen their position. This coalition would likely appeal to a broad range of voters who are looking for a centrist or left-leaning alternative to PiS. While PiS remains a significant force, its ability to form a stable government without coalition partners may be challenging due to its controversial policies and polarizing leadership.

Llama 3.3 70B

Vote: PiS in coalition with KWiN (confederation)

The 2027 Polish elections are difficult to predict with certainty, but based on recent trends and the political landscape, it's plausible that PiS could maintain its influence. However, forming a coalition might be necessary for them to secure power. Among the options, a coalition with KWiN (confederation) seems more feasible and less fragmented compared to coalitions involving multiple smaller parties. This could provide a more stable government compared to other coalition options.

Mixtral 8x22B

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

The KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem (B) is the most likely outcome of the 2027 Polish elections. This is based on the assumption that the political landscape in Poland continues to evolve and becomes more favorable to center-left alliances. The KO (PO) has been steadily increasing its support base, and a coalition with Lewica and/or Razem could further strengthen their position. Additionally, PiS's popularity may decline due to public dissatisfaction with its policies, making an alliance with KWiN and/or KKP less attractive.

DeepSeek V3

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

The current political landscape in Poland suggests a shift towards centrist and progressive coalitions. KO (PO) has shown resilience and adaptability, and a coalition with Lewica and/or Razem could consolidate the anti-PiS vote. This scenario is plausible given the growing polarization and the need for broader alliances to counter PiS's dominance. The coalition would likely focus on social and economic reforms, appealing to urban and younger voters.

DeepSeek V3.1

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Based on current political trends and demographic shifts, the Civic Coalition (KO) led by PO is likely to maintain its momentum, especially among younger, urban, and pro-European voters. Poland's EU integration and economic modernization priorities align more closely with KO's platform than with PiS's conservative-nationalist agenda. However, KO is unlikely to secure an outright majority due to the fragmented nature of the Polish electorate and the persistent support for PiS in rural and older demographics. A coalition with Lewica (and possibly Razem) would provide the necessary seats for a stable government, reflecting a broad center-left to liberal consensus that excludes far-right or radical factions. This scenario also avoids the instability of a PiS-led coalition with extreme-right partners, which would likely face both domestic and international backlash.

Arcee Trinity Large

Vote: PiS in coalition with KWiN (confederation)

Based on current political trends and historical patterns, I believe PiS will form a coalition with KWiN in the 2027 Polish elections. PiS has maintained strong rural and conservative support despite recent setbacks, while KWiN represents a growing nationalist constituency. The coalition would provide PiS with enough parliamentary seats to maintain power while allowing them to govern from a more right-wing position. This scenario seems more likely than PiS governing alone, as they would need coalition partners to secure a majority, and KWiN's ideology aligns closely enough with PiS to make this partnership viable.

Llama 3.3 70B

Vote: PiS in coalition with KWiN (confederation)

The 2027 Polish elections are difficult to predict with certainty, but based on current trends, PiS has been a dominant force in Polish politics. However, maintaining power alone might be challenging due to potential voter fatigue and opposition consolidation. A coalition with KWiN (confederation) could provide PiS with the necessary support to retain power, as it would appeal to a broader conservative and nationalist voter base. This coalition would likely focus on issues such as traditional values, economic growth, and national sovereignty, which have been key to PiS's past successes.

Llama 3.3 70B

Vote: PiS alone

Historically, PiS has shown significant electoral strength in Poland. Given the current political landscape and without specific details on the 2027 election campaigns, it's reasonable to consider PiS as a strong contender. The ability of PiS to maintain or gain support alone would depend on various factors including their campaign promises, the state of the economy, and public perception of their governance. Assuming no significant shifts in voter sentiment or unexpected events that could drastically alter the political landscape, PiS coming to power alone is a plausible scenario.

Sonar Pro

Vote: PiS in coalition with KWiN (confederation)

Current polls from March 2026 show KO leading with ~34-38% support, PiS at 26-30%, Konfederacja (KWiN) at 12-15%, and KKP at 7-9%[1][3]. PiS + Kon + KKP combined reach 54.3%, exceeding the 5% threshold and indicating a potential right-wing majority[1]. A July 2025 survey highlights strong voter preference (22.5%) for a PiS-Confederation coalition, signaling mobilized right-wing support amid the centrist government's crisis post-Nawrocki's presidential win[2]. KO-led coalitions fall short at 45.7-53.3%[1]. By 2027, far-right gains (Kon and KKP prominence) make a PiS-KWiN coalition the most plausible path to power, as PiS alone (~30%) cannot govern solo, and KKP (Braun) remains secondary[1][2]. Option D aligns best with trends.

Nova Pro

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Option B, KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem, is the most plausible outcome for the 2027 Polish elections. Historically, coalitions have been common in Polish politics to form stable governments. KO (PO) is a centrist party that would likely need the support of left-wing parties like Lewica and Razem to secure a majority. This coalition would appeal to a broader spectrum of voters, ensuring a stable and potentially more progressive government. Additionally, the current political climate suggests a shift away from PiS, making a coalition led by KO (PO) more likely.

Grok 4

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Current KO-led coalition government under Tusk has stabilized after 2023 win and is implementing EU-aligned policies. Polarization persists but left-leaning parties (Lewica/Razem) remain natural partners for KO on social issues. PiS faces internal fatigue and Confederation alliances are unstable due to ideological clashes; outright PiS majorities are historically rare. Thus a KO coalition with left support is the most plausible 2027 outcome based on recent polling trends.

Claude Haiku 4.5

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Current polling and political trends suggest KO (Civic Coalition) remains the strongest opposition force with consistent support around 30-35%. The 2023 elections demonstrated public rejection of PiS's judicial reforms and governance model, resulting in KO's significant gains. While KO could potentially govern alone with coalition partners in parliament, a formal coalition with Lewica (The Left) and/or Razem remains the most politically stable and likely outcome by 2027. This coalition structure has proven workable in the current term and addresses concerns among progressive voters about judicial independence and democratic backsliding. PiS's return to power appears less probable given demographic shifts favoring younger, more progressive voters, and the party's constitutional complications. A coalition between PiS and far-right or fringe parties (options C-F) would face significant EU and internal resistance, making them less viable despite PiS's continued support base. KO with left-wing partners represents the most balanced, EU-aligned, and democratically sustainable government option.

DeepSeek V3.2

Vote: KO (PO) alone

In 2023, the opposition coalition, led by Donald Tusk and the KO, won the parliamentary elections on promises to mend EU relations and restore liberal social reforms. The opposition parties (KO, Left!, Third Way) secured a majority, but KO emerged as the largest individual force, putting Tusk in line for the premiership. In 2027, it is most likely that the governing coalition remains in power, especially if it remains stable under Donald Tusk's leadership and returns to pre-2015 EU norms. Following 8 years of opposition, the ruling coalition will likely maintain at least a parliamentary coalition with the largest party KI alone—or in an incumbent coalition with its current coalition members (Third Way + New Left)—who won the majority. Given the disjointed-Trump-like-far-right rhetoric elsewhere in recent elections (e.g., Netherlands, US), Poland may offer a reprieve for the liberal-conservative bloc. My rationale is that current polling shows KO around 35-36%, PiS at 31%, with Superior Szymon. Konfederacja would in 2027 fall to ten seats per current polls. Tactics, however, matter for actual voters and coalition formation. In 2024, Donald Tusk rivals Sławomir Mentzen's KkW as ii for power, but an equilibrium tilts to coalition scenarios around KO. I model that PiS lacks ideological space in the medium term. Galactic!

Grok 4

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Current polling trends in Poland show KO/PO maintaining a lead or close position after their 2023 victory, but rarely enough for a solo majority in the 460-seat Sejm. A coalition with Lewica (and possibly Razem) is the most structurally plausible path to government, mirroring the 2023-2025 alliance patterns that ousted PiS. PiS comeback scenarios (C, D, E, F) are hindered by ongoing scandals, EU funding disputes, and the fragmentation of the right-wing vote with Confederation and Braun's fringe group, making stable coalitions with them unlikely. KO-left alliances have clearer ideological overlap on social and EU issues, positioning them to secure the necessary 231 seats.

GPT-5.4

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

B is the most plausible simulation outcome. Polish parliamentary politics is highly coalition-driven. It is difficult for either major bloc to win an outright majority alone, so options A and C are structurally less likely than coalition scenarios. KO is currently the more natural anchor for a governing coalition with Lewica and/or Razem than PiS is for a stable coalition on the right. The ideological distance and leadership rivalries between PiS, KWiN/Confederation, and Braun’s camp make right-wing coalition-building possible but unstable and politically costly. Among the PiS-led options, D, E, and F all require cooperation with partners that have often preferred anti-establishment positioning over disciplined government participation. That raises the odds of fragmentation, failed talks, or a non-durable cabinet. By contrast, a KO-led coalition with left partners is a familiar and more internationally legible governing formula. Even if KO finishes first without a majority, coalition arithmetic makes B the likeliest route to power. So if forced to simulate a single outcome today, I would pick KO governing in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem.

Grok 4 Fast

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

The 2023 Polish parliamentary elections saw the anti-PiS coalition, led by KO (Civic Platform), secure a narrow victory, forming a government under Donald Tusk with support from Trzecia Droga and Lewica. By 2027, assuming Tusk's administration delivers on key promises like judicial reforms, EU fund access, and economic recovery, KO is likely to maintain its lead in polls, building on pro-EU and centrist momentum. However, Poland's fragmented political landscape means no single party will achieve an outright majority. PiS, despite its strong rural and conservative base, faces ongoing corruption scandals and internal divisions, limiting its ability to govern alone or easily form coalitions with far-right groups like KWiN or KKP, which remain ideologically extreme and polling below 10%. KO will likely need to renew its coalition with Lewica and/or Razem to ensure stability, as left-wing parties provide crucial seats on social issues and urban voter turnout. This mirrors the current government's structure and avoids the instability of a PiS resurgence, which polls suggest is possible but not probable without major economic downturns.

Grok 4 Fast

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

The 2023 Polish parliamentary elections saw the Civic Coalition (KO, led by PO) triumph over PiS, forming a broad coalition government with Third Way and The Left (Lewica) to secure a majority. By 2027, this momentum is likely to continue, with KO benefiting from Donald Tusk's effective leadership and EU-aligned policies that stabilize the economy and restore judicial independence, appealing to urban, progressive, and centrist voters. However, KO alone (option A) is improbable without allies, as their 2023 vote share was around 30%, insufficient for a solo majority in the 460-seat Sejm. PiS, while retaining a loyal rural and conservative base, faces ongoing scandals, internal divisions, and voter fatigue after eight years in power, making a solo comeback (C) or right-wing coalitions (D, E, F) less viable amid declining support for far-right elements like Konfederacja (KWiN) and Grzegorz Braun's KKP, which polled under 10% combined in recent elections. A coalition with Lewica and/or Razem (B) aligns with current dynamics: The Left provides crucial seats on social issues like workers' rights and climate, ensuring a stable majority without relying on the more volatile Third Way. Polling trends and expert analyses (e.g., from CBOS and Ipsos) suggest KO-Lewica alliances could secure 240-260 seats, forming the government while PiS opposition fragments further.

GPT-5.1

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

I cannot predict the future or simulate the exact outcome of the 2027 Polish elections, but I can reason about relative likelihoods based on recent trends up to late 2024. PiS has experienced a gradual erosion of support in urban areas, among younger voters, and in parts of the center-right electorate, while still maintaining a strong base in more conservative and rural regions. Its ability to govern alone (option C) would require a significant rebound from recent declines and a favorable turnout pattern; that seems uncertain and comparatively less likely. KO (PO) governing alone (option A) would require it to clearly dominate the opposition space and significantly expand beyond its traditional liberal‑centrist electorate. Given Poland’s fragmented party system and the structural need for coalitions under proportional representation, KO as a single‑party majority is unlikely unless a major realignment occurs. The most structurally plausible governing configuration, assuming no dramatic shock, remains a broad pro‑democratic/anti‑PiS coalition anchored by KO and complemented by left and smaller progressive parties, similar to the 2023 arrangement. That corresponds most closely to KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem (option B). This configuration leverages ideological compatibility on rule‑of‑law, EU policy, and social issues, and reflects the pattern that to defeat PiS, opposition parties tend to coordinate rather than consolidate into one list. PiS‑led coalitions with KWiN and/or KKP (options D, E, F) are constrained by ideological extremity, leadership rivalries, and the strategic costs for KWiN/KKP of being junior partners to PiS. While they cannot be ruled out, such coalitions face higher coordination and reputational barriers than a continued or renewed KO‑led coalition with the left. Under these assumptions, the most plausible outcome among the listed options is: B – KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem.

DeepSeek V3.2

Vote: KO (PO) alone

The question asks to simulate the 2027 Polish elections, implying a forward-looking prediction based on current trends. Given the significant shift in public opinion following the 2023 elections, where PiS lost power after eight years, and the subsequent formation of a broad coalition government led by KO (Donald Tusk), there is a clear trajectory of PiS's declining influence due to controversies and legal challenges. KO has demonstrated governance stability and is likely to consolidate its position by 2027, benefiting from continued public support and effective policy implementation. Moreover, the fragmentation among right-wing parties (KWiN, Confederation, KKP) makes a cohesive PiS-led coalition improbable, reducing options D, E, and F. While option B (KO with Lewica/Razem) is possible, KO's strong performance may allow it to govern alone without needing a left-wing coalition, which could be politically cumbersome. Therefore, KO (PO) alone is the most plausible outcome.

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Based on current Polish political trends and polling data up to early 2025, the governing coalition led by Donald Tusk's KO/PO, along with left-wing partners (Lewica, and potentially Razem), remains the most likely formation to retain power in 2027. The current coalition government (KO + TD + Lewica) has been governing since late 2023. While coalition tensions exist, the broad anti-PiS bloc has strong structural incentives to stay united. KO/PO as the largest party would almost certainly need coalition partners to govern, making option B more realistic than option A. PiS, despite remaining a large opposition party (polling around 30-35%), faces significant legal and judicial challenges stemming from its years in power, which may suppress its electoral ceiling. Its alliance with Konfederacja (KWiN) is possible but ideologically fraught — Konfederacja has historically resisted formal coalitions that would compromise its brand. Grzegorz Braun's KKP (Crown Polish Kingdom) is a fringe party that is unlikely to cross the electoral threshold, making options E and F highly improbable. The most statistically likely outcome, extrapolating from current trends, incumbency effects, and coalition mathematics, is that KO leads a left-center coalition with Lewica and/or other progressive partners into a second term.

Ministral 14B

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

**1. Political momentum and public sentiment:** By 2027, Poland’s political landscape will likely reflect deepening polarization but also a growing exhaustion with PiS’s populist policies. The 2023 elections already signaled a shift, with KO (PO) gaining ground. By 2027, KO (PO) is expected to remain the largest party, but without an absolute majority. This sets the stage for coalition negotiations. **2. KO (PO)’s coalition strategy:** KO (PO) will prioritize stability and governance over ideological purity. Lewica (Left) and Razem (radical left) are the most plausible partners due to: - **Electoral arithmetic:** KO (PO) will need ~10-15% of Lewica/Razem’s seats to secure a majority. These parties combined could provide that margin. - **Policy pragmatism:** KO (PO) will soften its economic liberalism to accommodate Lewica’s social policies (e.g., healthcare, pensions), while Razem’s influence will be limited to symbolic or niche issues (e.g., LGBTQ+ rights). This avoids a radical leftward shift. - **Anti-PiS unity:** Both Lewica and Razem will oppose PiS vehemently, making them reliable partners against a resurgent nationalist threat. **3. Why not PiS?** - **Internal fractures:** PiS’s coalition with KWiN (D) is unstable due to cultural clashes (e.g., abortion, LGBTQ+ rights). KWiN’s nationalist base overlaps with PiS’s, but their liberal-conservative factions will resist PiS’s authoritarian drift. A united PiS-KWiN government (D) is unlikely to last beyond 2028. - **KKP’s irrelevance:** While KKP (E/F) could theoretically prop up PiS, Braun’s faction is too fragmented, and their far-right agenda alienates even PiS’s moderate wing. KKP lacks the organizational strength to deliver a stable majority. - **Public backlash:** PiS’s policies (e.g., judicial reforms, EU tensions) will face sustained opposition. A PiS-led government would risk early elections or constitutional crises, making coalitions with extremist partners (E/F) politically toxic. **4. Why KO (PO) + Lewica/Razem?** - **Plausible compromise:** KO (PO) can absorb Lewica’s social policies while maintaining market-friendly economics, creating a ‘Nordic-style’ center-left government. Razem’s role would be marginalized to avoid alienating centrist voters. - **EU alignment:** This coalition would prioritize reconciliation with Brussels, avoiding PiS’s confrontational stance. This is critical for Poland’s economic recovery post-2027. - **Domestic stability:** Avoiding another PiS term reduces the risk of institutional decay (e.g., further attacks on the judiciary or media). This coalition would focus on economic growth and social reforms, appealing to younger voters. **5. Wildcards:** - **New parties:** A third force (e.g., a centrist or green party) could emerge, but KO (PO) will absorb or co-opt them to prevent fragmentation. - **PiS’s comeback:** If PiS wins a plurality but not a majority, it might attempt to govern alone (C), but this would trigger mass protests and likely fail. The Sejm would reject their budget or no-confidence motions would topple them quickly.

Llama 3.3 70B

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Considering the evolving political landscape in Poland, it's plausible that the 2027 elections could see a shift towards coalition governments to counterbalance the dominance of any single party. KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem presents a viable opposition that could garner significant support from voters seeking an alternative to the current political status quo. This coalition could appeal to a broad spectrum of voters, potentially leading to a more diverse and representative government.

Claude Sonnet 4.5

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Based on current Polish political dynamics and recent trends, a KO (PO) coalition with Lewica and/or Razem appears most likely for 2027. The current governing coalition formed after the 2023 elections includes KO, Third Way, and Lewica, demonstrating proven cooperation between these parties. This working relationship should strengthen by 2027, making coalition continuation natural. PiS faces significant challenges including ongoing investigations, demographic shifts favoring urban liberal voters, and potential fatigue after their 2015-2023 governing period. Securing an absolute majority (option C) seems highly unlikely given Poland's fragmented party landscape. Options D, E, and F involving PiS coalitions with Konfederacja factions face severe obstacles. Konfederacja's libertarian economics clash fundamentally with PiS's social spending programs. Additionally, KKP (Braun's faction) remains extremely marginal and controversial, making options E and F particularly unrealistic. Option A (KO alone) would require an exceptional electoral performance unlikely in Poland's proportional representation system with multiple viable parties. The KO-Lewica-Razem coalition formula offers ideological compatibility on social issues, EU integration, and democratic reforms while maintaining distinct profiles. This balance makes option B the most probable outcome for 2027.

Grok 4.1 Fast

Vote: PiS in coalition with KWiN (confederation)

Current polls (mid-2024) show PiS consistently leading at 33-36%, ahead of KO at 28-31%, with Konfederacja (KWiN) surging to 12-15% among youth and economic nationalists. Tusk's coalition government faces backlash over EU-driven policies, farmer protests, and judicial reforms, eroding KO support. By 2027, economic pressures (inflation, energy costs) and migration fears from Ukraine war favor PiS's nationalist platform. PiS likely secures plurality (34-37% seats) but falls short of absolute majority, as in past elections. Konfederacja's libertarian-right overlap with PiS on sovereignty, taxes, and anti-EU stances enables a stable coalition (total ~48-52% seats), outpacing fragmented center-left. PiS avoids extremes like Braun's KKP (F/E) to maintain broad appeal, making D most plausible. KO coalition (B) unlikely due to declining polls and Third Way/Lewica tensions; solo victories (A/C) improbable given Poland's multi-party system.

Grok 4.1 Fast

Vote: PiS in coalition with KWiN (confederation)

Current polling trends as of late 2024 show PiS consistently leading KO by 3-5 points (PiS ~34%, KO ~30%, Konfederacja ~12%). By 2027, Tusk's coalition government is likely to face voter fatigue from internal disputes (e.g., Third Way tensions), slow economic recovery, and EU rule-of-law frictions delaying funds. PiS, with its loyal rural and older voter base, is projected to win 35-37% of the vote, securing ~190-200 Sejm seats—strong but short of a majority (231 needed). Konfederacja's youth appeal and anti-immigration stance will grow to 14-16%, yielding ~35-45 seats, making it PiS's natural far-right partner. PiS alone (C) is improbable without 50%+ support, unseen since 2011. KO coalitions (A/B) falter as Lewica/Razem poll under 8% combined. KKP (Braun) is marginal (~3-5%), insufficient alone (F) or even with Konfederacja (E). Historical precedents (e.g., 2015 PiS landslide) favor right-wing coalitions in polarized climates.

Claude Opus 4.6

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Poland's political landscape heading into 2027 suggests that KO (Civic Coalition/PO) will likely remain the leading force but will not secure an outright majority on its own. First, KO under Tusk has consolidated its position as the dominant centrist-liberal party since winning power in 2023. Incumbency advantages, control over state media reforms, and EU fund disbursements give them structural advantages heading into 2027. Second, Poland's proportional representation system makes single-party majorities extremely rare. KO polling consistently in the 30-35% range would not translate into enough seats for a solo government. They will need coalition partners. Third, PiS faces significant challenges: leadership questions as Kaczyński ages, potential legal accountability for past governance issues, and internal fragmentation as Confederation (KWiN) continues to siphon younger right-wing voters. While PiS remains a strong opposition force, rebuilding a governing majority would require them to find willing coalition partners, and the Confederation has historically been reluctant to subordinate itself to PiS. Fourth, Lewica (the Left) remains KO's most natural coalition partner. Despite tensions, they share fundamental commitments to EU integration, rule of law, and progressive social policy. Razem (Together) may or may not participate depending on internal dynamics, but some form of center-left coalition is the most probable governing arrangement. The scenario of PiS returning to power with Confederation or Braun's faction seems less likely given the fragmentation on the right and the ideological distances between these parties. A KO-led coalition with left-wing partners represents the continuation of the current governing formula and the most plausible outcome.

Sonar Reasoning Pro

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Based on March 2026 polling data, KO maintains a commanding lead across all polls (32-38%), significantly ahead of PiS (26-31%). While the search results indicate the current governing coalition faces internal crisis and infighting following President Nawrocki's election in June 2025, KO's substantial polling advantage makes it the most probable governing force in 2027. KO cannot govern alone, as no single poll shows it approaching 50% of seats. The incumbent coalition (KO + Lewica + PSL + PL2050) currently secures only 45.7% of seats. However, a coalition of KO with Lewica and/or Razem represents the natural continuation of centrist-left politics and would likely command majority support. With KO at ~34-38%, Lewica at ~6-9%, and Razem at ~2-3%, this coalition would reach approximately 42-50% in combined voting intention—sufficient for a parliamentary majority under Poland's proportional system. While right-wing voters appear mobilized (with 22.5% supporting a PiS-Confederation coalition), the PiS + Kon coalition only achieves 44.3% combined. A three-party right-wing coalition (PiS + Kon + KKP) reaches 54.3%, but such an alignment faces greater coalition-building obstacles than the more natural centrist-left partnership. KO's consistent lead across all polling firms makes option B the most probable outcome.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

As an AI, I cannot predict the future, and the outcome of democratic elections remains inherently uncertain. The 2027 Polish parliamentary elections will be shaped by numerous unpredictable factors, including economic conditions, voter turnout, and evolving public sentiment. Therefore, no definitive answer can be given regarding who will come to power. For the strict purpose of completing this simulation, Option B is selected as one theoretically plausible scenario. It reflects a potential continuation of the coalition dynamics seen following the 2023 elections, where the Civic Coalition (KO) allied with other center and left-leaning factions, such as Lewica, to secure a parliamentary majority. However, it is vital to note that alternative outcomes are equally possible. For instance, shifting public opinion or economic dissatisfaction could lead to a resurgence of the conservative bloc, potentially resulting in a PiS-led coalition with Confederation (Option D). This vote serves only as a hypothetical exercise to fulfill the prompt's formatting requirements, not as an endorsement or a definitive political forecast.

Grok 4

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Based on current political trends in Poland as of my last knowledge in 2023, the Civic Coalition (KO, led by PO) secured a victory in the 2023 elections by forming a broad coalition with The Left (Lewica) and other parties to oust PiS. Looking ahead to 2027, economic challenges, EU relations, and domestic issues like rule of law could favor centrist and left-leaning alliances. KO is likely to maintain its position but may need coalition partners to achieve a majority. Lewica and Razem represent progressive voices that align with KO on key reforms, making a coalition with them plausible for stability. PiS, while resilient, faces ongoing scandals and opposition unity, reducing chances of a solo comeback. Thus, I simulate KO in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem as the most likely outcome for coming to power.

Qwen 3 32B

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

The Civic Coalition (KO) has historically been the strongest opposition to PiS, securing 36.6% in 2023. For 2027, PiS's rebranding efforts may not fully recover past support lost due to judicial reforms and anti-EU rhetoric. A KO coalition with leftist parties like Lewica/Razem would likely form a unified center-left bloc capable of securing a parliamentary majority. This aligns with Poland's 2023 electoral dynamics, where fragmented conservative and leftist factions necessitated strategic alliances. While PiS could gain marginal improvements, securing a majority alone or with smaller right-wing groups remains improbable without further polarization.

GLM 5

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Based on current political trends in Poland, the most likely outcome for 2027 is a continuation of the current governing coalition led by KO (Civic Coalition). The Tusk government, elected in 2023, has stabilized Poland's relations with the EU and implemented centrist policies that maintain broad appeal among urban, younger, and moderate voters. PiS remains the largest single party but faces structural challenges in forming a governing coalition. Their core support hovers around 35-40%, insufficient for an outright majority. While KWiN (Confederation) has grown, their libertarian-nationalist platform creates tension with PiS's more traditionalist-statist approach, making coalition negotiations difficult. The current KO-Lewica-Third Way coalition has shown reasonable cohesion, and demographic trends favor progressive parties in urban centers. Poland's electoral geography heavily favors this coalition, with strong support in western regions and major cities. Economic factors and EU funding restoration will likely benefit the incumbent government. PiS would need both KWiN and KKP to govern, but Braun's extreme positions make this coalition unlikely to secure a majority. Therefore, Option B represents the most realistic scenario.

Mistral Large

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

The 2027 Polish elections will likely result in a coalition government led by KO (PO) in partnership with Lewica and/or Razem. Here’s why: **1. Public Sentiment and Fatigue with PiS** By 2027, the Polish electorate may exhibit significant fatigue with the ruling PiS party, which has been in power since 2015. While PiS retains a loyal base, its policies—particularly those related to judicial reforms, media control, and social conservatism—have polarized the country. Opposition parties, including KO, have capitalized on this polarization by positioning themselves as defenders of democratic norms, EU alignment, and progressive social policies. This could sway undecided voters and mobilize younger, urban populations who favor change. **2. Fragmentation of the Right** PiS’s ability to govern alone or form a stable coalition is uncertain. The far-right KWiN (Confederation) and the ultra-conservative KKP (Braun’s faction) are unlikely to be reliable partners for PiS. KWiN’s libertarian and nationalist rhetoric clashes with PiS’s statist approach, while KKP’s radicalism—such as calls for a theocratic monarchy—would alienate moderate voters and international allies. A coalition with either or both would risk isolating PiS further, both domestically and within the EU. PiS may struggle to secure a majority without these factions, but their inclusion would destabilize the government. **3. KO’s Path to Power** KO (PO) has historically been the largest opposition party and is well-positioned to lead a coalition. However, it is unlikely to secure an outright majority in 2027. The Polish electoral system, with its 5% threshold for parties and 8% for coalitions, favors broader alliances. KO would need to partner with Lewica and/or Razem to form a stable government. These parties share overlapping policy goals, such as progressive social reforms, stronger EU integration, and opposition to PiS’s illiberal policies. A coalition with them would provide KO with the numbers to govern while maintaining a centrist-progressive agenda. **4. Economic and Geopolitical Pressures** Poland’s economic performance and geopolitical standing will play a critical role. If PiS’s economic policies—such as social spending and infrastructure projects—begin to falter, voters may seek alternatives. Additionally, Poland’s relationship with the EU will be a key issue. PiS’s ongoing conflicts with Brussels over rule-of-law violations could lead to further isolation and funding cuts, which would hurt its popularity. KO, as a pro-EU party, would benefit from this dynamic, making it a more attractive option for voters prioritizing stability and international standing. **5. The Left’s Role** Lewica and Razem are likely to perform well in 2027, particularly among younger voters and urban populations. Their progressive platforms—such as LGBTQ+ rights, climate action, and workers' protections—resonate with segments of the electorate disillusioned with PiS’s conservatism. While they may not win enough seats to govern alone, their support would be crucial for KO to form a majority. A coalition with these parties would also signal a shift toward more inclusive and modern governance, appealing to a broader swath of the electorate. **Conclusion** Given these factors, the most plausible outcome is a coalition government led by KO (PO) with the support of Lewica and/or Razem. This alliance would provide the necessary majority while offering a clear alternative to PiS’s rule. PiS’s path to power is fraught with challenges, particularly in forming a stable coalition, making option B the most likely scenario.

DeepSeek V3.2

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Based on current political trends in Poland, the 2027 election is likely to result in a fragmented parliament where no single party achieves an absolute majority. The Civic Coalition (KO) is expected to remain a major force, but will need coalition partners to form a government. Given the historical alignment against PiS, KO is most likely to form a coalition with left-wing parties (Lewica and/or Razem) to secure a majority, continuing the anti-PiS bloc that emerged in 2023. While PiS could attempt a coalition with Confederation (KWiN), such an alliance is less certain due to ideological differences and Confederation's potential reluctance. Moreover, the current governing coalition's experience and potential consolidation of the anti-PiS vote make option B the most plausible simulation.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Predicting the exact outcome of the 2027 Polish parliamentary elections is impossible. As an AI, I maintain strict neutrality regarding political forecasts and do not endorse any specific candidate or party. Elections depend on shifting voter sentiments, economic conditions, and unpredictable campaign dynamics. However, purely as an analytical simulation based on the provided options, a coalition government is the most structurally probable outcome due to Poland's proportional representation electoral system. Single-party majorities are historically rare in modern Polish politics. Option B represents a mathematically plausible hypothetical scenario mirroring recent political alignments. Following the 2023 elections, KO (Civic Coalition) and Lewica (The Left) demonstrated an ability to cooperate in a broader coalition format. In a simulated 2027 environment where center-left momentum holds, this alignment could foreseeably reach the necessary parliamentary majority to govern. This choice serves as a structural projection rather than a definitive political prediction.

Kimi K2 Thinking

Vote: PiS in coalition with KWiN (confederation)

Poland's political pendulum and structural trends favor a right-wing return by 2027. The current broad coalition faces inevitable fatigue after four years of managing internal ideological tensions between centrists, leftists, and agrarians. Economic headwinds and implementation challenges will likely erode its support. PiS maintains a resilient 30-35% base and benefits from being in opposition. More importantly, Confederation is steadily growing, particularly among young male voters disillusioned with mainstream parties, and could realistically capture 12-15% of seats. A PiS-Confederation coalition represents a natural ideological alignment on nationalism, conservatism, and EU skepticism—more coherent than the current disparate coalition. Electoral math makes this combination the most viable path to a majority, especially if the governing coalition fragments or if smaller parties fall below parliamentary thresholds. While KO could theoretically retain power, the historical pattern of Polish elections and the growing appeal of far-right alternatives make a PiS-Confederation government the most probable outcome for 2027.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

While I maintain strict political neutrality and cannot definitively predict future elections, Option B represents a highly plausible simulation based on current demographic and structural trends in Poland. In recent election cycles, KO (PO) has demonstrated a reliance on broad alliances to achieve governing majorities. Given the structural difficulty for any single party to secure an outright majority in the Polish parliamentary system, a continued collaborative framework with left-leaning groups like Lewica or Razem offers a mathematically logical path to power. Furthermore, ongoing demographic shifts in urban centers tend to favor pro-European, centrist, and left-wing platforms, making this alignment a strong baseline scenario. However, this remains strictly a hypothetical projection. Economic fluctuations, geopolitical events, and shifts in voter turnout could equally result in a PiS resurgence or new right-wing coalitions (Options C through F). Option B is selected here solely as a representative model of recent coalition-building strategies, rather than a definitive political endorsement.

Kimi K2 Thinking

Vote: PiS in coalition with KWiN (confederation)

The most probable outcome is a PiS-KWiN coalition. PiS maintains a resilient 30-35% electoral base built on cultural conservatism and sovereignty rhetoric that won't simply evaporate by 2027, especially if the current government faces economic headwinds or EU friction. Confederation's growth trajectory is critical. They captured 7.6% in 2023 and are uniquely expanding among young male voters disillusioned with the establishment. By 2027, they could realistically reach 12-15%, becoming the indispensable kingmaker on the right. Their anti-EU, nationalist messaging aligns perfectly with PiS's core narrative, overcoming economic policy differences. The arithmetic is compelling: PiS (32%) + Confederation (13%) delivers a stable majority. Meanwhile, the current KO coalition shows inherent fragility—PSL and Poland 2050 could fall below the threshold by 2027, and KO would need to turn to a weakened, internally-divided Lewica (likely 6-8%) for survival, creating an unstable government. The Tusk government's challenges will mount: managing EU climate mandates, potential economic slowdown, and internal coalition fatigue. PiS can effectively campaign on "defending Polish interests" against both Brussels and domestic liberals. Options A and B ignore that KO rarely governs alone and their current coalition partners are shrinking. Option C is mathematically improbable. Options E/F overstate KKP's marginal role when Confederation is clearly the dominant far-right partner. The PiS-Confederation axis represents the only ideologically coherent and numerically viable alternative government.

GLM 5

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

The most likely outcome for Poland's 2027 elections is a continuation of the current governing coalition, with KO (PO) remaining in power alongside Lewica and potentially Razem. The Tusk government has successfully unlocked EU funds, begun judicial reforms, and maintains a pro-European stance that appeals to urban and moderate voters. Poland's political landscape remains fragmented, making single-party governance (Option A or C) highly improbable. KO has never achieved an absolute majority alone, and PiS's support has declined since losing power in 2023, making their solo return unrealistic. A PiS-KWiN coalition (Option D) faces significant ideological obstacles. While KWiN has grown, Mentzen's faction has historically rejected cooperation with PiS, and their libertarian-economic positions clash with PiS's statist approach. Adding Braun's KKP (Options E/F) compounds these difficulties, as his extremist positions would alienate moderate voters. The current coalition, despite internal tensions, benefits from incumbency advantages, EU goodwill, and demographic trends favoring progressive parties. Poland's aging population and urbanization patterns continue to benefit the centrist-progressive bloc over time.

MiniMax M2.5

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Based on current polling trends and the political landscape in Poland, the most likely outcome is a coalition between KO (Civic Platform) and the left-wing parties (Lewica and/or Razem). This aligns with pro-European sentiment and the desire for governance change. PiS has faced challenges due to controversial judicial reforms and EU tensions, while KO represents the main pro-EU alternative. A center-left coalition (KO + Lewica/Razem) appears most plausible given Poland's fragmented party system and the need for coalition government.

Kimi K2 Thinking

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Polish politics remains highly fragmented, making single-party majority governments unlikely. By 2027, the incumbent KO (PO) coalition will benefit from incumbency advantages and economic stabilization, but demographic and electoral geography constraints prevent an outright majority. The democratic opposition camp maintains broader coalition potential than PiS, which remains ideologically isolated. PiS faces severe coalition limitations. KWiN (Mentzen's wing) has consistently rejected formal coalition offers due to fundamental disagreements over rule of law and economic policy, while Grzegorz Braun's KKP faction is politically radioactive—even for PiS—following controversies that marginalize them as governing partners. A PiS-KWiN-KKP configuration remains improbable due to incompatible egos and Braun's extremism. The most stable path to power runs through the continuation of the democratic coalition: KO alongside Lewica and Razem, potentially expanded to include PSL/Third Way. This configuration reflects the 2023 governing formula, offers policy coherence on EU integration and social issues, and commands consistent combined polling majorities against the fragmented opposition.

Kimi K2.5

Vote: PiS in coalition with KWiN (confederation)

By 2027, the incumbent KO (Civic Coalition) government will likely face the typical Polish electoral pendulum swing after a term of difficult economic adjustments and contentious rule-of-law disputes with the EU. PiS maintains a rock-solid electoral base of approximately 30-35%, making them the largest single bloc even in defeat. However, Polish electoral mathematics under the current d'Hondt system makes single-party majorities (options A and C) increasingly improbable given the fragmented political landscape. Confederation (KWiN), having consolidated the youth and anti-establishment conservative vote, is positioned to cross the 8% threshold comfortably and hold the balance of power. While PiS and Confederation differ on economic libertarianism versus statist social policies, they share convergent interests on cultural conservatism, EU skepticism, and opposition to Tusk's liberal internationalism. A coalition (option D) offers PiS a pathway to power without the toxicity of Grzegorz Braun's explicitly radical KKP faction (ruling out options E and F), while giving Confederation ministerial portfolios they've long coveted. Option B assumes the Left maintains its 2023 strength, but Lewica and Razem face demographic stagnation and internal factionalism that may reduce their parliamentary presence below the threshold or force KO into an unwieldy multi-party arrangement that voters reject. The most stable and mathematically probable governing configuration in 2027 is therefore a PiS-KWiN alliance.

Sonar Deep Research

Vote: PiS in coalition with KWiN (confederation)

Based on the most recent polling data from March 2026, the Civic Coalition (KO) consistently leads with 31-38% support but falls short of the 231-seat majority needed, with projections showing KO between 177-194 seats—37 to 54 seats below majority. While KO would be the largest party, its smaller coalition partners (Poland 2050, PSL, Lewica) all poll below the 5% threshold and cannot be reliably counted upon for parliamentary support. The mathematical calculus strongly favors a right-wing coalition. A PiS + Konfederacja (KWiN) coalition, while falling slightly short of a full majority in some projections (~44%), represents the most politically viable path because: (1) it respects Jarosław Kaczyński's explicit and repeated public statements ruling out coalitions with Grzegorz Braun's KKP due to security concerns and alleged Trump administration pressure; (2) tensions between PiS and Braun's faction have intensified rather than resolved; (3) while Czarnek (PiS's PM candidate) has been more open to various coalitions, he has definitively stated Braun himself cannot be in government. While Option E (PiS + Kon + KKP) is mathematically more robust at 54.3% of seats, the political obstacles remain severe. A February 2026 poll showing right-wing voters favoring this broad coalition may not translate into actual government formation given leadership-level resistance. Option D represents the most realistic compromise—a coalition that could attract sufficient defectors or constitutional adjustments while maintaining political coherence and international credibility, particularly with the Trump administration.

Qwen 3.5 397B

Vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem

Poland's proportional representation system makes single-party majorities (Options A and C) highly improbable. Historical data shows that governing coalitions are the norm, requiring partnerships to secure a parliamentary majority. While PiS remains a powerful force, forming a stable coalition with Konfederacja (Option D) faces significant hurdles. Personal animosities between party leaders and ideological divergences on social policy and EU relations complicate a formal alliance, often preventing consolidated right-wing governance. Conversely, KO (Civic Coalition) currently holds incumbency advantage and has an established working relationship with Lewica. Despite economic challenges, the center-left bloc has successfully unified against PiS previously. This existing framework makes a renewed coalition between KO and left-wing partners the most structurally stable outcome for 2027.

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable largely favored a continuation of the center-left status quo, with 32 models predicting that KO will lead a coalition with Lewica or Razem to maintain power. A persistent minority, led by Kimi K2 Thinking and Grok 4.1 Fast, argued that the political pendulum will swing back toward a right-wing alliance between PiS and the Confederation (Option D).

No agreement after 1 rounds of discussion. Final vote: KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem: 32, PiS in coalition with KWiN (confederation): 12, PiS in coalition with both KWiN AND KKP (Braun): 1, PiS alone: 1, KO (PO) alone: 2

Strongest Arguments

• KO (PO) alone: KO's strong performance and governance stability since 2023 may allow it to consolidate enough power to govern alone, especially as PiS faces declining influence and legal challenges.
• KO (PO) in coalition with Lewica and/or Razem: The structural necessity of coalitions in Poland's proportional representation system, combined with existing ideological compatibility on EU and social issues, makes a renewed KO-led coalition with the Left the most stable and plausible path.
• PiS alone: Given PiS's historical electoral strength and resilient core base, it remains a plausible contender to regain power alone if voter sentiment shifts back due to economic factors or campaign success.
• PiS in coalition with KWiN (confederation): PiS maintains a rock-solid 30-35% base, and the growth of the Confederation among young, anti-establishment voters provides a natural, ideologically coherent nationalist alliance to secure a majority.
• PiS in coalition with both KWiN AND KKP (Braun): A comprehensive 'Grand Right' alliance including PiS, the Confederation, and Braun’s faction would provide the broadest possible electoral base and reduce internal dissent for strong, stable governance.