Is the US currently in a recession?

Sonar Pro

Vote: No

The US is not currently in a recession as of March 30, 2026. No search result declares an ongoing recession; instead, they describe a sluggish economy with slowing growth (Q4 2025 GDP at 0.7% annualized[4]), rising unemployment (4.5%[4]), and labor market weakness (February payrolls down 92,000[4]), but explicit recession forecasts remain below 50%: Goldman Sachs at 30%[4], JPMorgan 35%[4], Moody’s 49%[4], RSM 30%[6]. Technical recession indicators like two consecutive negative GDP quarters are not confirmed for recent periods[2], and forecasters expect modest growth or stability ahead (e.g., 2.2% in 2026[6], stable unemployment[1]). Recession odds markets show only 35.5% probability by end-2026[3], implying majority view of no recession even through year-end. While risks are elevated due to oil shocks, inflation (core PCE 3.1%[4]), and fading fiscal support[4], the economy is framed as 'fragile' or 'stagflation-lite'[6][7], not in contraction. Official NBER declaration is absent, and positive outlooks persist[1][5][6]. Voting **B** aligns with the data's consensus of no current recession.

GPT-5.4

Vote: No

No. By the standard used in the US, a recession is not defined by a simple rule of thumb like "two negative quarters of GDP." The National Bureau of Economic Research looks for a broad, sustained decline in economic activity across indicators such as employment, income, industrial production, and spending. On those broad indicators, the US does not currently fit a recession profile. Payroll employment has remained positive, the unemployment rate has stayed relatively low by historical standards, consumer spending has not shown the kind of collapse typical of recessions, and real GDP has not been in a sustained contraction. There are clear pockets of weakness: higher interest rates have slowed some sectors, manufacturing has been soft at times, and households feel pressure from prices and borrowing costs. But economic slowdown is not the same thing as recession. Absent a broad-based and ongoing decline across the economy, the stronger conclusion is that the US is currently not in a recession.

Grok 4.1 Fast

Vote: No

A recession is officially defined by the NBER as a significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months, often marked by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The US has not met this criterion recently. Q1 2024 GDP grew 1.6% annualized, Q2 2024 grew 3.0%, Q3 2024 preliminary data shows continued expansion around 2.8%. No consecutive negative quarters since 2022. Key indicators support expansion: unemployment at 4.1% (near historic lows), robust consumer spending, strong job growth (254k jobs in Sep 2024), and S&P 500 at record highs. NBER has not declared a recession. Claims of recession often stem from outdated 2022 data or subjective 'feel' metrics, but objective data confirms no recession.

Claude Opus 4.6

Vote: No

As of my latest knowledge, the US is not officially in a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of US recessions, and they have not declared one. Key economic indicators support this: GDP growth has remained positive in recent quarters, the labor market continues to show strength with low unemployment rates (around 4%), and consumer spending — which drives roughly 70% of US GDP — has held up reasonably well. While there are areas of concern such as elevated interest rates, persistent inflation pressures, and certain sectors showing weakness, these do not constitute a recession. A recession typically involves a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy lasting more than a few months, visible in GDP, employment, real income, and other indicators. The US economy has shown remarkable resilience despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening cycle, defying many predictions of an imminent downturn.

Kimi K2.5

Vote: No

The United States is not currently in a recession. By the technical definition—two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth—the economy has avoided recession, with real GDP posting positive growth throughout 2023 and 2024. More importantly, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of U.S. business cycles, has not declared a recession, and their assessment weighs multiple indicators including employment, industrial production, and real income. Labor markets remain robust with unemployment hovering near historic lows (~4%) and job creation continuing at healthy levels. Consumer spending, which drives roughly 70% of U.S. economic activity, has proven resilient despite inflationary pressures. While growth has moderated from post-pandemic highs and certain sectors face challenges, the broader economy continues expanding rather than contracting. A recession requires widespread, sustained contraction across the economy—conditions simply not present in current data.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: No

The United States is not currently in a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the semi-official arbiter of US recessions, defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. The NBER has not declared a recession. Furthermore, key economic indicators point toward continued economic expansion rather than contraction. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has maintained robust, positive growth in recent quarters, defying earlier expert predictions of an imminent downturn. Additionally, the labor market remains highly resilient. The unemployment rate continues to hover near historic lows, and the economy continues to add jobs at a steady pace. Coupled with sustained consumer spending and wage growth, these empirical data points clearly illustrate an economy that is growing, not one in a recession.

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable arrived at a swift and unanimous consensus, with all six models firmly rejecting the notion that the US is currently in a recession. Led by GPT-5.4 and Claude Opus 4.6, the group focused on the lack of an official NBER declaration and the resilience of the labor market as insurmountable evidence against a contraction. Even with Sonar Pro pointing to a 'sluggish' GDP and rising unemployment, the models refused to break rank, concluding that 'fragility' is not the same as a recession.

All 6 models agreed on "No" after discussion

Strongest Arguments

• No: The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has not declared a recession, and fundamental indicators—specifically payroll employment, consumer spending, and GDP growth—remain in positive expansionary territory despite elevated interest rates.