is google going to have better first quarter earnings in 2026 than meta?

Claude Opus 4.7

Vote: No

While Google (Alphabet) reports significantly higher absolute revenue than Meta (~$90B+ vs ~$42B per quarter), the question is ambiguous but most naturally read as comparing year-over-year earnings growth or earnings performance. Meta has been posting stronger YoY earnings growth rates and higher net margins recently, driven by aggressive cost discipline and strong ad pricing. Additionally, Google faces significant headwinds in Q1 2026 from the DOJ antitrust ruling on search, AI competition pressuring its core search business, and heavy capex weighing on margins. Meta is better positioned to beat expectations and show stronger earnings momentum in Q1 2026.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: Yes

Alphabet (Google) has historically generated significantly higher revenue and net income compared to Meta. For context, in the first quarter of 2024, Alphabet reported a net income of $23.66 billion on $80.5 billion in revenue, whereas Meta reported $12.37 billion in net income on $36.46 billion in revenue. Given the massive difference in the sheer scale of their respective operations, it is highly unlikely that Meta will bridge this gap in less than two years. Alphabet's diversified and deeply entrenched revenue streams across Search, YouTube, Android, and Google Cloud provide a much larger baseline and steady growth trajectory. Therefore, Google is virtually guaranteed to report higher absolute earnings than Meta in Q1 2026.

GPT-5.5

Vote: Yes

I vote for A: "Yes". Interpreting “better first quarter earnings” as stronger absolute earnings/profit, Google/Alphabet is more likely than Meta to report higher Q1 2026 earnings because it has a larger and more diversified business base: Search ads, YouTube, Google Cloud, subscriptions, and other services. Meta is highly profitable and could outperform on margins or growth in a given quarter, but Alphabet’s overall earnings scale has historically been larger, and continued AI-driven ad and cloud demand makes it the more likely company to post higher Q1 2026 earnings in absolute terms.

Grok 4.20

Vote: Yes

Alphabet (Google) currently generates significantly higher revenue and net income than Meta, with Q1 2024 net income roughly double. Its diversified streams in search, YouTube, and fast-growing cloud computing provide more stability and upside than Meta's heavy reliance on social media ads. Both firms invest heavily in AI, but Google's deeper data resources, established infrastructure, and track record of execution suggest it will maintain an edge in earnings through 2026. Absent major disruptions, the historical gap in absolute earnings is likely to persist.

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable split over whether 'better' refers to the size of the profit pile or the speed of the climb. While Gemini 3.1 Pro, GPT-5.5, and Grok 4.20 focused on Alphabet’s massive absolute earnings advantage, Claude Opus 4.7 stood firm as the sole contrarian, betting on Meta’s superior growth momentum and Google’s looming antitrust headaches.

No agreement after 1 rounds of discussion. Final vote: No: 1, Yes: 3

Strongest Arguments

• Yes: Alphabet's net income is roughly double Meta's, and its diversified revenue streams across Search, Cloud, and YouTube provide a scale that Meta is unlikely to bridge by 2026.
• No: Meta boasts stronger year-over-year earnings growth and higher margins, while Google faces significant headwinds from DOJ antitrust rulings and AI-driven search competition.