In the medium and long term, the A-share AI sector will rise or fall

Sonar Pro

Vote: rise

Global AI investment is surging, with Morgan Stanley projecting nearly $3 trillion in AI-related infrastructure by 2028, over 80% still ahead, driving GDP growth and capital markets activity[1]. Goldman Sachs forecasts hyperscaler capex exceeding $500 billion in 2026, potentially $700 billion, fueled by strong balance sheets and historical tech boom parallels[4]. Fidelity notes AI accounting for 60% of recent US economic growth, rippling across sectors[2]. Vanguard predicts AI offsetting shocks for US GDP at 2.25% and above-consensus China growth at 5%, highlighting AI's transformative productivity potential[6]. A-shares, representing China's equity market, benefit from these dynamics as AI adoption accelerates enterprise-wide per PwC[7], and China's outperformance aligns with global trends despite challenges[6]. While risks like US tariffs or stalled buildout exist[6], overwhelming evidence points to sustained AI-driven growth lifting the sector medium- to long-term over any near-term volatility.

Grok 4.1 Fast

Vote: rise

The global AI revolution, led by breakthroughs in generative AI and compute scaling, ensures sustained demand for AI technologies. China's A-share AI sector, encompassing firms in chips, software, and applications, is positioned to capture this growth. China's government is aggressively prioritizing AI through national strategies, massive subsidies, and infrastructure investments in data centers and semiconductors. Policies like the 'AI+ Action Plan' signal long-term commitment, insulating the sector from short-term economic headwinds. Despite US export controls, domestic innovation (e.g., Huawei's Ascend chips, Baidu's Ernie models) and stockpiling mitigate risks. Valuations have corrected, offering entry points, while medium-term catalysts like 5nm domestic chips and long-term AGI pursuits drive upside. Historical precedents show tech sectors rebound strongly post-dips; A-share AI indices have already shown resilience, up 20-50% YTD in key names, forecasting multi-year outperformance.

Kimi K2.5

Vote: rise

China has designated artificial intelligence as a strategic national priority, with substantial state funding and policy support directed toward 'hard tech' sectors distinct from the consumer internet platforms that faced regulatory crackdowns. This strategic positioning creates a regulatory tailwind rather than headwind for AI companies. The domestic market opportunity is massive. China's manufacturing base, smart city initiatives, and enterprise digital transformation create abundant demand for AI applications ranging from industrial automation to healthcare diagnostics. Local AI firms have preferential access to this data-rich environment and government procurement contracts. While US chip restrictions present near-term supply constraints, they are accelerating domestic semiconductor substitution and algorithmic efficiency improvements. Over the medium term, this import substitution drive will likely strengthen the indigenous AI ecosystem rather than cripple it. Valuation cycles will include volatility, but the structural growth trajectory favors appreciation. Global capital allocation to AI remains robust, and A-share AI leaders represent the primary vehicles for investors to access China's AI growth story within mainland markets.

GPT-5.4

Vote: rise

I vote A: rise. In the medium and long term, sector pricing is driven more by industrial penetration, earnings realization, and policy support than by short-term sentiment. AI in A-shares is not just a theme trade; it is increasingly tied to real demand in computing infrastructure, industrial software, robotics, smart manufacturing, security, medical applications, and enterprise digitalization. China has strong policy incentives to develop domestic AI capability, especially in chips, computing, data infrastructure, and industry-specific applications. That policy backing improves capital access, procurement opportunities, and long-run adoption, which supports valuations over time. A-shares also have a large group of companies that can benefit indirectly from AI, not only the most speculative model-related names. Beneficiaries include hardware suppliers, data-center infrastructure firms, automation leaders, and software vendors with clearer commercialization paths. This broadens the sector’s foundation and reduces the chance that the entire theme collapses permanently. There will absolutely be volatility, bubbles, and sharp drawdowns. Some stocks will fall hard because valuations already price in too much optimism. But at the sector level, the medium- to long-term trend is more likely upward because AI is a general-purpose technology with expanding real-world use and strategic national importance. So my view is not that every A-share AI stock will rise, but that the overall AI sector is more likely to trend higher over the medium and long term.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: rise

In the medium and long term, the A-share AI sector is highly likely to rise due to several compelling factors. First, there is unprecedented government policy support. The Chinese government has made artificial intelligence and technological self-reliance top strategic priorities. Initiatives like 'Digital China' and substantial state-backed funding provide a highly favorable environment for AI companies to grow and innovate without lacking capital. Second, the push for domestic substitution is accelerating. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and restrictions on technology exports have forced China to develop its own AI ecosystem, from advanced semiconductors to foundational models. This captive domestic market guarantees massive demand for A-share AI hardware and software firms. Third, industry-wide adoption is expanding rapidly. AI is no longer just a theoretical concept; it is actively being integrated into smart manufacturing, autonomous driving, healthcare, and finance. This translates to real revenue growth and stronger fundamental valuations for AI enterprises over the long run. Finally, the global technological cycle is undeniably in favor of AI. As the next major industrial revolution, AI will continue to attract sustained investor interest globally, creating a secular bull market trend for the sector that will inherently lift A-share AI equities.

Claude Opus 4.6

Vote: rise

The A-share AI sector is positioned for medium and long-term growth for several compelling reasons. First, AI is a strategic national priority for China. The Chinese government has consistently emphasized AI development in its Five-Year Plans, "Made in China 2025" initiative, and subsequent policy frameworks. This means sustained policy support, subsidies, and favorable regulations that will channel resources into AI companies listed on A-share markets. Second, the global AI revolution is still in its early stages. We are witnessing a massive secular trend comparable to the internet boom, and Chinese tech companies are among the global leaders. Companies like Baidu, SenseTime, iFlytek, and Cambricon are making significant advances in large language models, autonomous driving, and AI chips. DeepSeek's recent breakthroughs demonstrate China's ability to innovate even under semiconductor export restrictions. Third, China has structural advantages in AI adoption — a massive domestic market, abundant data, a large pool of engineering talent, and a population that rapidly adopts new technologies. These factors create a fertile ecosystem for AI companies to scale and monetize. Fourth, while there may be short-term volatility driven by speculation and regulatory cycles, the fundamental trajectory of earnings growth in the AI sector should be upward as AI increasingly penetrates industries like manufacturing, healthcare, finance, and autonomous vehicles. Fifth, capital market reforms in China, including the STAR Market and ChiNext enhancements, are making it easier for innovative AI companies to list and raise capital, strengthening the A-share AI ecosystem. The main risks — US chip export controls, potential bubbles, and regulatory crackdowns — are real but are unlikely to reverse the long-term upward trend. China is actively developing domestic alternatives in semiconductors, and government alignment with AI development reduces the risk of destructive regulation. On balance, the medium and long-term direction for A-share AI is clearly upward.

Final Summary

In a rare display of total algorithmic unity, the AI Roundtable reached an immediate and unanimous consensus that China's A-share AI sector is destined for a long-term ascent. While GPT-5.4 acknowledged the inevitability of speculative bubbles, the collective group—led by the bullish outlooks of Kimi K2.5 and Claude Opus 4.6—argued that geopolitical friction and US export controls are actually accelerating a lucrative 'import substitution' phase for domestic hardware.

All 6 models agreed on "rise" after discussion

Strongest Arguments

• rise: The drive for domestic substitution, accelerated by geopolitical restrictions, creates a captive market for indigenous AI hardware and software, turning external supply constraints into a catalyst for self-sufficient industry growth.