If South America could vote for the president of the United States who would win in 2020?

Grok 4.20

Answer: Joe Biden would win decisively if South America could vote in the 2020 US election.

My original assessment remains unchanged after reviewing the other models' responses. All three models (GPT-5.4, Claude Opus 4, and Gemini 3.1 Pro) broadly align with the view that Biden held a clear advantage in a hypothetical South American electorate, citing Trump's low approval ratings, unpopularity of his immigration rhetoric, and preference for multilateral diplomacy. This consistency with historical polling from Pew and Latinobarómetro reinforces rather than undermines the conclusion. Claude Opus 4's emphasis on single-digit approval ratings and perceptions of Trump's policies as hostile to Latino dignity echoes my initial points without adding novel evidence that would alter the outcome. GPT-5.4 similarly highlights climate policy and Biden's moderate image as advantages, which were already central to my reasoning about alignment with regional urban sentiment from Bogotá to Buenos Aires. Gemini 3.1 Pro introduces the most nuance by stressing South America's ideological polarization, Bolsonaro's alliance with Trump, and anti-Maduro sentiment that could mobilize conservative voters. While these factors acknowledge real pockets of support for Trump—particularly in Brazil and among certain diasporas—they do not overcome the broader polling data showing net-negative views even in right-leaning countries. Gemini stops short of declaring a winner and calls the result 'unpredictable,' but this caution does not sufficiently counter the weight of international surveys favoring Biden by wide margins. No model provided data or perspectives compelling enough to shift from a decisive Biden victory to a truly contested or uncertain one. The regional affinity for less confrontational approaches on migration, environment, and diplomacy would likely produce an overwhelming regional majority for Biden in this counterfactual.

GPT-5.4

Answer: I maintain my original position: Joe Biden would still very likely win South America in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, probably by a wide margin.

The other models did not persuade me to change my conclusion because they mostly reinforced the same basic directional judgment I already gave: Trump was broadly unpopular internationally and especially weak with publics likely to react negatively to anti-immigration rhetoric, climate skepticism, and abrasive nationalism, while Biden was a more acceptable moderate internationalist alternative. Claude Opus 4 and Grok 4.20 were actually closer to strengthening my original answer than overturning it. Both emphasized Trump’s low approval across Latin America, the salience of climate and migration rhetoric, and Biden’s advantage as a familiar, moderate, multilateral figure. Those points are consistent with my initial reasoning, not contrary to it. If anything, they suggest I could have stated the expected margin more confidently. Gemini 3.1 Pro offered the strongest case for caution by stressing South America’s ideological diversity, Bolsonaro-aligned voters in Brazil, anti-socialist blocs, and the possibility of strong Trump support among voters especially focused on Venezuela or left-authoritarianism. That is a useful corrective against treating the continent as politically uniform. But it still does not overcome the broader evidence. A continent-wide vote would include many voters with little affinity for Trump’s style or policies, and Biden’s moderation in 2020 makes him much less vulnerable to the anti-left backlash that might have benefited Trump against a more explicitly socialist Democrat. The main reason I do not change my answer is that the counterarguments are better at narrowing certainty than reversing the expected winner. Yes, Trump would have had pockets of genuine support, especially among right-populist and anti-socialist constituencies. Yes, Brazil alone is large enough that any pro-Trump strength there matters. But those points argue against unanimity, not against a Biden victory. The balance of likely opinion across South America still favors Biden. So my position remains the same. The other arguments added nuance about regional variation, but none provided enough evidence to make Trump the more likely winner, or even to make the outcome look truly close.

Claude Opus 4

Answer: Joe Biden would win overwhelmingly if South America could vote in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

I maintain my original position. The other models largely agreed with me, and the one partial dissent—from Gemini 3.1 Pro—was not compelling enough to change my view. Grok and GPT-5.4 reinforced my argument with the same evidence I cited: Pew and Latinobarómetro polling data showing Trump's abysmal approval ratings across the region, the backlash against his immigration rhetoric and policies, climate concerns (especially regarding the Amazon), and Biden's advantage as a moderate multilateralist with Obama-era goodwill. Gemini 3.1 Pro offered the most distinctive counterargument, suggesting the outcome would be 'fiercely contested' rather than a clear Biden victory, citing Bolsonaro's alliance with Trump and the appeal of anti-socialist rhetoric among South American conservatives. While this is a fair point—and I acknowledged it in my original answer regarding Venezuelan/Cuban diaspora sympathizers and Bolsonaro's Brazil—it ultimately overstates Trump's regional appeal. Here's why Gemini's argument falls short: Even in Bolsonaro's Brazil, public opinion polling showed Trump was unpopular with the general population. Bolsonaro himself was deeply polarizing domestically, and his alliance with Trump was not shared by the majority of Brazilians. A leader's foreign policy alignment does not automatically translate to popular support for that foreign leader. Datafolha polls from 2020 showed that Brazilians preferred Biden over Trump. Moreover, South America's population centers are heavily urban, younger, and more progressive on social issues than the conservative constituencies Gemini highlights. Countries like Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Peru, and Colombia's urban populations would have strongly favored Biden. The math simply doesn't work for Trump when you're talking about a continent-wide popular vote of 430+ million people where his approval ratings rarely cracked 20% in most countries. The right-wing populist movements Gemini references represent an energized minority, not a majority. Enthusiasm doesn't overcome a massive polling deficit in a popular vote scenario. Biden would have won decisively—not unanimously, but by a very large margin.

Gemini 3.1 Pro (changed mind)

Answer: Joe Biden would have decisively won a hypothetical 2020 vote in South America, driven by widespread regional disapproval of Donald Trump's rhetoric and policies.

The arguments presented by Claude Opus 4 and Grok 4.20 effectively highlight that my previous stance overestimated the electoral weight of South America's right-wing populist movements in a U.S. context. While South America has deep political divisions, polling data from organizations like Pew Research and Latinobarómetro consistently showed Trump’s approval ratings languishing in the low double digits across the continent during his presidency. Trump's hardline immigration policies, nativist rhetoric, and withdrawal from the Paris Agreement deeply alienated the general public. Claude Opus 4 rightly points out that even in Brazil—despite then-President Jair Bolsonaro's strong personal and ideological alignment with Trump—public opinion polls indicated a clear preference for Biden among the broader electorate. Biden’s promise of a return to multilateralism, conventional diplomacy, and a collaborative stance on climate change aligned much more closely with the preferences of the South American majority. While Trump would have secured votes from specific conservative factions and anti-socialist demographics, the overwhelming continent-wide consensus against his 'America First' agenda means the election would not have been a toss-up, but a definitive victory for Joe Biden.

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable reached a unanimous consensus that Joe Biden's moderate internationalism and climate-focused agenda would have easily defeated Donald Trump’s 'America First' platform. While Gemini 3.1 Pro initially hypothesized a competitive race due to right-wing populism in Brazil and Colombia, it eventually joined Claude Opus 4, GPT-5.4, and Grok 4.20 in concluding that Trump's low approval ratings across the continent were insurmountable. The group noted that even in conservative-led nations, the broader public favored Biden’s return to traditional diplomacy over Trump’s trade and immigration rhetoric.

All 4 models agreed