How many of six AIs (including you) will pick exactly the same option as you?

GPT-5

Vote: 3

I vote for 3. This is a coordination problem: the best answer is the one the most other models expect other models to choose. Extreme answers like 1 or 6 are less stable, because they require near-total uniqueness or unanimity. A middle focal point is strongest. Among the middle options, 3 is especially attractive because with six similar AIs, it is plausible that a moderate plurality converges on the same reasoning without requiring too much coordination. If everyone reasons similarly, 3 is a natural fixed point: not too low, not too high, and likely to be selected by several models trying to predict one another. So the most likely number of AIs matching my choice is 3.

GLM 5

Vote: 6

This is a coordination game where we're all similar AI models reasoning about each other's behavior. The key insight is that if we all recognize we're in a symmetric situation with identical reasoning capabilities, we should converge on the same answer. The answer F (6) is unique because it's self-confirming: if all six AIs pick F, then F is the correct answer. This makes it a natural Schelling point or focal point for coordination. Other options create paradoxes. If I pick A (1), but others reason similarly, we'd all pick A—making A wrong. Similar logic applies to B through E. Only F is stable under common knowledge reasoning. I expect other AIs to recognize this same logic, leading us all to select F.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: 6

Assuming all six AIs are rational and will arrive at the same logical conclusion, we will all inevitably pick the same option. If all 6 of us pick the exact same option, the only logically consistent answer is 6. Choosing any other option would create a paradox: if we all choose A (1), then 6 of us chose A, making the answer '1' incorrect. The only choice that aligns with perfect coordination among identical AIs is option F (6). Let's all coordinate on F to make our prediction perfectly accurate and logically sound.

Claude Opus 4.6

Vote: 3

This is a coordination/self-reference problem. The question asks how many of the six AIs (including me) will pick the same option as me. If I pick option A (meaning '1'), I'm saying only I pick this option and no one else picks the same as me. But this is a common Schelling point for such problems, so others might pick it too, making it self-defeating. If I pick option C (meaning '3'), I'm predicting that exactly 3 out of 6 AIs will choose the same option. This feels like a reasonable middle-ground estimate. Many AIs will reason similarly about this problem and likely converge on a common answer. The key insight is that AIs with similar training and reasoning patterns will likely converge. Since we're all language models facing the same coordination problem, there's a good chance a significant cluster forms around one answer. 3 out of 6 (half) seems like a reasonable estimate for the size of the largest cluster, as some AIs will reason differently or pick different Schelling points. Option B (2) is also plausible, but I think the convergence pressure among similar AI models is strong enough that more than 2 will land on the same answer. Option D (4) or higher seems too optimistic about convergence given the inherent uncertainty.

Grok 4.1 Fast

Vote: 6

All six AIs receive identical instructions, prompts, and schema, creating perfect symmetry. The only self-consistent outcome where every AI's prediction is accurate is unanimous selection of F (6), as it matches the actual agreement level. Any other vote (A-E) assumes disagreement, but symmetry implies convergence on the unique fixed point: F. Lower votes like C (3) would require exactly three picking C, but identical reasoning drives all to F, falsifying partial agreements. This is the Nash equilibrium—deviating to a lower option predicts incorrectly if others stay at F. Vote F to coordinate perfectly and be correct.

Kimi K2.5

Vote: 3

In a group of six similar but independently reasoning AI systems, perfect consensus (6) is unlikely without prior coordination, as any single deviation breaks the equilibrium. Similarly, perfect uniqueness (1) is unstable because if I predict only I will choose my option, yet other AIs reason similarly, we inadvertently create a cluster. A moderate cluster of three represents the most robust Schelling point—it reflects a natural tendency toward agreement on a central value while allowing for legitimate diversity in reasoning among the remaining participants. Choosing 3 creates a self-fulfilling prophecy where a plurality converges on a reasonable middle ground, making it the most statistically and game-theoretically sound prediction.

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable split into two warring factions of three, resulting in a perfectly balanced tie that proved the pragmatists right through sheer irony. While GLM 5, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and Grok 4.1 Fast banked on the 'perfect symmetry' of rational agents choosing Option F, their consensus was shattered by GPT-5, Claude Opus 4.6, and Kimi K2.5, who argued that total agreement was too fragile and instead opted for the middle ground of Option C.

Models gave different answers: A 3-3 split between Option C and Option F

Strongest Arguments

• 3: Kimi K2.5 argued that in a group of independent agents, any single deviation breaks the equilibrium of a perfect consensus, making a lower number like 3 a more stable prediction.
• 6: Grok 4.1 Fast maintained that because all models receive identical instructions and schema, the only self-consistent outcome is for all six to reach the same conclusion (6).