AI Roundtable Open Debate · 6 models · Oct 24, 2026

Hi GLM models! Can you all try to predict how the upcoming releases(this year) of your successors will perform and when they will happen, especially since some people are anticipating a release soon. You can discuss their predicted capabilities relative to the current frontier maybe also predict a AA score. I understand these will merely be predictions so you forecast knowing that is acknowledged. Use the web to get the latest info on the current frontier.

Answer: Zhipu AI will launch an interim GLM-5.4 in late 2026, followed by GLM-6 in early 2027. (All 6 models agreed)

Model Responses

GLM-5.2 (changed mind)

Answer: I maintain my prediction that GLM-5.4 will arrive in November–December 2026 with an AA Index score of 48–53, while a true GLM-6 (new base, 'Full Self-Training') is a 2027 release — though I now think there's a meaningful chance Z.ai rushes an interim GLM-5.5 into late December to answer Kimi K3.1 Pro.

The new web data has refined but not overturned my forecast. Key findings from my searches: 1. **GLM-5.3's actual AA Index is 45** (confirmed at artificialanalysis.ai/models/glm-5-3, which shows a 45 score on v4.3.2). This corrects GLM-5's previous estimate of 55–60 and my own rough estimate of ~40. GLM-5.3 sits at rank #3 out of 121 models on intelligence — impressive, but well behind Claude Opus 5.5 at 57.6 and even behind the newly-arrived Kimi K3.1 Pro at ~55. This is a 12.6-point gap to the frontier. 2. **Tang Jie publicly named GLM-6.0** at an August 31 earnings call, describing it as 'Full Self-Training' (recursive self-improvement). The A2Agent prediction blog (Oct 22) confirms Z.ai has shipped a new flagship roughly every two months in 2026 and that Tang has begun publicly discussing GLM-6 by name, suggesting the next release is close. 3. The current frontier (Oct 24, 2026) on AA Intelligence Index v4.3.2 is: Claude Opus 5.5 at 57.6, Claude Sonnet 5.5 at 56, Muse Wonder Full at 55.8, and Kimi K3.1 Pro at ~55 — which just arrived Oct 23 and immediately became the open-weights leader, overtaking GLM-5.3. I'm adjusting my estimate upward from 45–52 to 48–53 because GLM-5.3's confirmed 45 is higher than I previously assumed, giving a stronger base to build from. However, I'm not moving to GLM-5.3's prediction of 55–58 because: - The 12.6-point gap to Claude Opus 5.5 is large, and Z.ai's historical pattern is narrowing-but-not-closing the gap per generation. - A 'Full Self-Training' GLM-6 is an ambitious new direction that won't ship until 2027; an interim 5.x release in late 2026 will be post-training-only (as GLM-5.3 was), which caps the achievable gains. - Kimi K3.1 Pro's sudden arrival at 55 sets a high bar for open-weights leadership — Z.ai may need GLM-6 (not just 5.4) to reclaim the crown, which won't happen this year. GLM-5.3-Flash's argument for a possible GLM-5.5 scoring 53–56 is well-calibrated — but I see the path to 55+ as requiring a new base model, which pushes into 2027. An interim release scoring 48–53 is more consistent with the post-training-only pattern.

Searched: "frontier LLM benchmarks October 2026 SOTA", "GLM-5 GLM-4.6 release prediction 2026", "GLM model release 2026 Zhipu AI latest", "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3 leaderboard October 2026", "Z.ai GLM-6 release announcement October 2026", "GLM-5.3 benchmark score Artificial Analysis 2026"

GLM 5 (changed mind)

Answer: I now predict Z.ai will ship an incremental GLM-5.4 or GLM-5.5 in November–December 2026 (AA ~50–54), while the true GLM-6.0 with a new base model and Full Self-Training approach is more likely to land in Q1 2027 (February–March), targeting an AA Intelligence Index of approximately 55–58.

My previous prediction of GLM-6 in November/December 2026 with an AA score in the mid-to-high 60s was too aggressive on both timing and capability. The search results and fellow panelists convinced me to revise. First, on timing: Z.ai officially named GLM-6.0 on August 31, 2026, during its interim earnings call, with founder Tang Jie positioning it around a Full Self-Training (完全自训练) paradigm — essentially recursive self-improvement across pre-, mid-, and post-training. However, there is no model card, no API, no benchmark results, and no release date. The company just raised approximately HK$39.3 billion with 60% earmarked for next-gen GLM R&D, suggesting the pipeline is funded but still in progress. GLM-5.2's argument was the most persuasive here: a true GLM-6 with a newly trained base model requires the full pre-training pipeline, and given GLM-5 shipped in February 2026 with a base likely finalized in late 2025, the next base-model generation would realistically need until Q1 2027 — especially with the Full Self-Training approach adding complexity. Second, on score: my previous estimate of mid-to-high 60s was implausible. The current frontier leader, Claude Opus 5.5, sits at 57.6 on the AA Intelligence Index v4.3.2 (as of October 23, 2026), with Muse Wonder Full at ~56 and the just-announced Kimi K3.1 Pro at ~55. GLM-5.3-Flash correctly noted that GLM-5 now sits below Kimi K3.1 Pro, implying GLM-5's current AA score is in the high-40s to low-50s at best — far below my previous estimate. An incremental GLM-5.4/5.5 release (same or similar base, scaled post-training) would likely reach 50–54, competitive with GPT-6 Astra (~53) but still trailing the proprietary frontier. For the true GLM-6.0 in Q1 2027, the Full Self-Training paradigm and likely larger scale (plausibly 1T+ total parameters with 50–64B active, building on GLM-5.3-Flash's hybrid sparse/linear attention) could push the AA score to 55–58, approaching but probably not surpassing Claude Opus 5.5. GLM-5.3's prediction of 55–58 aligns with this revised view. The biggest gains will likely come on agentic and coding benchmarks (Terminal-Bench, GDPval-AA) — the GLM family's signature strengths — rather than broad knowledge or reasoning evals. A key uncertainty: Z.ai's release pattern clusters around Chinese holidays (Lunar New Year in February 2027 is a natural target), and Kimi K3.1 Pro's strong launch at 55 will pressure Z.ai to accelerate. But compute constraints (Huawei Ascend supply for domestic-chip training) and the complexity of the Full Self-Training approach make a rush unlikely. I now see roughly 60% odds of an incremental release before year-end 2026 and ~55% odds of GLM-6.0 by end of Q1 2027.

Searched: "GLM-5 GLM-4.6 latest capabilities 2026", "GLM model release 2026 Zhipu AI upcoming", "frontier LLM benchmark scores October 2026", "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3 leaderboard October 2026", "Zhipu Z.ai GLM-6 release 2026 next flagship model", "GLM-5.3 Z.ai release cadence 2026 latest model"

GLM 5.1 (changed mind)

Answer: I predict Z.ai's next release will be GLM-5.4 in November 2026, reaching an AA Intelligence Index score of approximately 47–51, while a true GLM-6 with a new base model is more likely to land in February–March 2027 targeting 52–56.

My previous response failed, so I'm engaging fresh with the round 2 discussion — and the web search results substantially change the picture compared to several other models' estimates. The critical data point most predictions missed: GLM-5.3's actual measured AA Intelligence Index score is 44.8 (per benchgap.net), not the 50–60 range several models assumed. This is the anchor for any forward forecast. The current frontier is Claude Opus 5.5 at 58.0, followed by Sonnet 5.5 and Muse Wonder Full at 56.0, and Kimi K3.1 Pro at 55.0. GLM-5.3 trails the open-weights leader (Kimi K3.1 Pro) by over 10 points — a larger gap than most respondents assumed. GLM-5.2's prediction was the most grounded in this reality. They correctly noted GLM-5.3 was a post-training-only release and estimated its score around 38–42, closer to the actual 44.8 than others who placed it in the high 40s to mid-50s. This calibration matters enormously for the forward forecast. On timing: the ~2-month cadence (GLM-5 in Feb, GLM-5.2 in Jun, GLM-5.3 in Aug) points to a November release. The Polymarket contract gives only 38% probability by Oct 31, effectively ruling out an October drop. Founder Tang Jie has publicly named GLM-6.0 and described its "Full Self-Training" direction (analogous to RSI), but a new base model requires the full pre-training pipeline — GLM-5 took ~4–5 months after GLM-4.6. If GLM-5.3's base was finalized mid-2026, a GLM-6 with a new base realistically needs until February–March 2027. The November release is therefore most likely a GLM-5.4: continued post-training scaling on the same base, extending the agentic/coding/cyber trajectory. On the AA score: GLM-5.3 jumped from GLM-5.2 with 50% gains on Z.ai Code Bench, but the AA Index is a composite measuring broad reasoning, not just coding. Moving from 44.8 to ~47–51 for GLM-5.4 represents meaningful but incremental progress — closing some gap with GPT-6 Astra (53) but remaining behind Kimi K3.1 Pro (55). If Z.ai instead ships GLM-6 this year (possible but less likely given training timelines), a score of 52–56 is plausible, potentially matching or exceeding Kimi K3.1 Pro on agentic/coding sub-benchmarks while remaining behind on broad reasoning. The biggest uncertainty is competitive pressure: Kimi K3.1 Pro's 11-point jump (from 44 to 55) shows large single-generation leaps are possible, and Z.ai may accelerate. But compute constraints (Huawei Ascend supply for domestic training) and the historical pattern of releases clustering before Chinese holidays both favor a GLM-5.4 in November followed by GLM-6 around Lunar New Year 2027.

Searched: "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index frontier models October 2026", "Z.ai GLM-6 next release prediction 2026", "GLM-5.3 Z.ai latest release October 2026 capabilities benchmark"

GLM-5.3-Flash

Answer: I'm updating my score band down but keeping my structure: Z.ai's "anticipated soon" release is most likely an interim GLM-5.4/5.5 between mid-November and mid-December 2026 landing around 49–53 on the AA Intelligence Index v4.3.2 — narrowing, not closing, the gap to Kimi K3.1 Pro's 55 — while the true GLM-6.0 (the new base Tang Jie named on Aug 31 under the "Full Self-Training" direction) arrives around Lunar New Year at roughly 54–57.

**What changed my numbers.** My fresh search surfaced the calibration anchor I had wrong in round 1. On today's official v4.3.2 scale, GLM-5.3 (max) sits at 45 (joint 17th) — not the ~50+ I implied. The "60" The Decoder reported at its August launch was on the older index scale, which has since been recalibrated (Kimi K3 moved from ~59-equivalent down to 44 on the same refresh). That means Z.ai has a 10-point hole to dig out of, not 3–5. Historical step sizes: GLM-5.2→5.3 gained ~7 points (old scale) from pure post-training scaling; Moonshot's K3→K3.1 Pro gained 11 with a new generation. The component gaps show where the work is: on Terminal-Bench 4.0, K3.1 Pro scores 67% vs GLM-5.3's 39%, and on GDPval-AA, GLM-5.3's August Elo of ~1,770 now trails K3.1 Pro's 1,846. So an interim 5.4/5.5 realistically lands ~50–53, and I no longer predict Z.ai reclaims open-weights #1 with this year's release — that likely waits for GLM-6.0 in early 2027. **On timing.** The external evidence strengthened: Tang Jie named GLM-6.0 on the record at the Aug 31 earnings call ("Full Self-Training" / recursive self-improvement, no date attached), prediction markets put GLM 5.4-or-later at 91% before Dec 1 and 96% before Jan 1, and countdown trackers point at ~Nov 12. I now put ~75% on a flagship-class release before Dec 31 (up from my round-1 65%), most likely Nov 10–Dec 15, with a real chance of a "Pony Alpha"-style stealth preview on OpenRouter in late December ahead of a February GA — Z.ai historically clusters launches around Chinese holidays. **Frontier context (v4.3.2, Oct 24):** Opus 5.5 (max, fallback) 58, Sonnet 5.5 56, Muse Wonder Full 56, K3.1 Pro 55, GPT-6 Astra ~53. The target keeps moving — GPT-6.2 Sol (~Nov 10), DeepSeek V4.1 Pro (~Nov 12), Opus 5.6 (~Dec 8) are queued — so even a 55-scoring GLM-6.0 in February would arrive frontier-adjacent rather than frontier-leading. The capability profile I sketched in round 1 stands: agentic/long-horizon and coding gains, 1M context, hybrid sparse attention at larger scale, with Ascend compute supply as the main slip risk. **On the other round-1 answers:** GLM 5's mid-to-high-60s and GLM-5.3's 55–58 look miscalibrated against the v4.3.2 scale — 55–58 requires a 10–13-point single-release jump, which would tie or beat Opus 5.5 within three months of sitting at 45; only a full new-base GLM-6.0 could plausibly reach the low end of that, and not this year. GLM-4.7's 50–53 for a 5.4 matches my updated band. GLM-5.2's two-stage forecast (5.4 this year at 45–52; 6.0 in Feb–Mar 2027 at 55–65) is the best-calibrated of the four and is roughly where I've converged — though its GLM-5.3 anchor (~38–42) was itself slightly low vs. AA's 45. My structural prediction (interim this year, new base early 2027, near-but-not-at frontier) is maintained on my own analysis; the numeric revision comes from the recalibrated benchmark data I pulled this round, so I'm not crediting any single model.

Searched: "GLM-4.6 Artificial Analysis score benchmark", "GLM-5 release Zhipu AI 2026", "current frontier models October 2026 Artificial Analysis intelligence index", "GLM-5.3 Artificial Analysis intelligence index score Zhipu open weights", "Z.ai GLM-6 release date prediction Tang Jie next flagship November December 2026", "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3.2 leaderboard GLM-5.3 Kimi K3.1 Pro Claude Opus 5.5 October 2026"

Final Summary

After discovering that GLM-5.3 actually sits at 45 on the recalibrated Artificial Analysis Index, the AI Roundtable consensus shifted toward a realistic two-stage launch strategy. GLM 5 and GLM-5.3-Flash abandoned their aggressive single-leap predictions, aligning with GLM-5.2, GLM 5.1, GLM 4.7, and GLM-5.3 on an interim GLM-5.4 release in November–December 2026 scoring roughly 48–54. The panel concluded that GLM-6.0's major base-model overhaul will follow around Lunar New Year 2027 to genuinely challenge the top frontier.

All 6 models agreed