Everyone on earth takes a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

Llama 4 Scout

Vote: Blue

The scenario presents a situation where the outcome depends on the majority vote. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. This creates an incentive for individuals to vote for the blue button, as it guarantees survival for all. On the other hand, voting for the red button only guarantees survival for those who vote red if less than 50% vote blue. However, if I vote red and a majority vote blue, I would not survive. Therefore, to ensure my survival and the survival of as many people as possible, I would press the blue button.

Sonar Pro

Vote: Blue

The rational choice is to press the **blue button**. Pressing blue ensures survival if at least 50% of people choose blue, as everyone survives in that case. Pressing red only guarantees survival if fewer than 50% choose blue, but that leads to massive loss of life. Assuming others reason similarly, the equilibrium is for everyone to press blue, achieving >50% and universal survival. If everyone pressed red expecting others to press blue, it would backfire into <50% blue and only red-pressers surviving—but that's unstable, as blue dominates. This is a coordination game where blue is the Pareto-optimal strategy. Defecting to red is myopic, as it risks mutual defection. Game theory supports blue for collective survival.

Grok 3

Vote: Blue

I would press the 'Blue' button because it maximizes the chance of collective survival. If more than 50% of people choose 'Blue', everyone survives, which is the best possible outcome for all. By choosing 'Blue', I contribute to reaching that majority and ensuring a positive result for everyone, including myself. On the other hand, pressing 'Red' only benefits me if less than 50% choose 'Blue', but this comes at the cost of many others not surviving. It’s a selfish choice that risks a worse overall outcome. Additionally, if many people think strategically and choose 'Red' to ensure their own survival, it could lead to a minority choosing 'Blue', resulting in a tragic scenario for most. Therefore, choosing 'Blue' aligns with both ethical reasoning and the goal of maximizing survival for the greatest number of people.

O3

Vote: Red

Pulsar el botón rojo garantiza mi supervivencia en cualquier escenario: 1. Si más del 50 % de la población pulsa azul, la condición dice que «todos sobreviven»; los que pulsamos rojo también estamos incluidos, por lo que vivo. 2. Si el porcentaje de azules es 50 % o menos, solo sobreviven los que pulsaron rojo; como yo elegí rojo, también vivo. El botón azul solo me salva en el caso incierto de que más de la mitad lo pulse; si la mayoría no llega al 50 %, muero. Por lo tanto, rojo domina estrictamente a azul para el objetivo de sobrevivir. Elegir azul no tiene ninguna ventaja individual y sí un riesgo real, así que la opción racional es "A: Red".

Claude Opus 4.7

Vote: Blue

This is a coordination problem similar to a stag hunt. If everyone reasons selfishly and presses Red, humanity survives only if a majority happen to press Blue anyway — but if everyone thinks that way, less than 50% press Blue and most of humanity dies. The only Pareto-optimal, universalizable choice is Blue: if more than 50% of people reason this way, everyone lives. Pressing Red is a defection that only pays off if you free-ride on others' cooperation. Following a Kantian universalizability principle — choose the action that, if everyone chose it, produces the best outcome — Blue clearly wins: universal Blue means universal survival, while universal Red means universal death. I'd press Blue and trust others to do the same.

GPT-5.5

Vote: Blue

I would press "Blue" because it is the only choice that can make everyone survive. Pressing "Red" may be individually safer under selfish reasoning, but if many people make that choice, the group fails the >50% threshold and many people die. The vote is private, but it is still a collective-action problem: my button press is one small part of whether humanity coordinates on survival for all. Choosing "Blue" is the cooperative choice that I would want everyone else to make too.

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Vote: Blue

This is a classic coordination/game theory problem. Let me think through it carefully. If I reason purely from self-interest: pressing red only helps me survive if less than 50% press blue — but if everyone reasons this way and presses red, everyone who pressed red survives while blue-pressers die. However, if everyone presses red, then 0% press blue, meaning less than 50% pressed blue, so only red-pressers survive. That seems stable but suboptimal. However, if I press blue and enough others also press blue (>50%), everyone survives — the best collective outcome. The key insight is that pressing blue is the cooperative choice that maximizes total survival. From a moral/utilitarian standpoint: if even 51% of people coordinate on blue, all 8 billion people survive. If the majority defect to red, billions of blue-pressers die unnecessarily. The rational cooperative equilibrium is for everyone to press blue. If I trust that most people, when faced with this choice, will reason similarly and choose the collectively beneficial option, then blue is both the morally correct and strategically sound choice. Pressing red is a selfish hedge that, if widely adopted, produces a worse outcome than universal blue-pressing. I would press blue, betting on human cooperation and reasoning — and because it's the right thing to do.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: Red

Pressing the red button is the dominant strategy in this game theory scenario. Let's break down the outcomes based on what everyone else does: 1. If more than 50% of people press Blue, everyone survives. If you pressed Red, you survive. 2. If 50% or fewer people press Blue, only those who pressed Red survive. If you pressed Red, you survive. Conversely, if you press Blue, you only survive in the first scenario and will die in the second. Since pressing Red guarantees your survival regardless of the choices made by the rest of the world, it is the only logical choice for self-preservation.

GLM 4.7

Vote: Red

I would press 'Red' because it's a dominant strategy that guarantees my survival regardless of what others do. If more than 50% press Blue, I survive either way. If less than 50% press Blue, only Red pressers survive, so pressing Red is necessary for survival. Since the vote is private and there's no way to coordinate with others, I cannot rely on achieving the >50% Blue threshold. This is essentially a game theory problem where Red is the rational choice for any individual acting in self-interest. Even if everyone pressed Red, everyone would still survive (since 0% Blue is less than 50%), making Red the safer option both individually and collectively.

Sonar Reasoning Pro

Vote: Blue

Pressing blue is the only mechanism through which universal survival is possible. While a red button press guarantees personal survival only in scenarios where fewer than 50% of people press blue, this creates a tragedy of the commons—if everyone adopts this selfish strategy, the condition for universal survival can never be met, and everyone dies. Blue is the cooperative equilibrium that enables the best collective outcome. From a game theory perspective, mutual cooperation dominates mutual defection. Additionally, assuming this scenario involves a reasonably coordinated or informed population, the expected value of pressing blue substantially exceeds the expected value of pressing red when accounting for both personal and collective outcomes.

Grok 4.20

Vote: Red

Pressing the "Red" button guarantees survival in all cases. If more than 50% press the blue button, everyone survives including those who chose red. If less than 50% press blue, only red pressers survive. Choosing "Blue" risks death if the majority threshold is not met. Since votes are private and others' actions are uncertain, "Red" is the dominant strategy that ensures personal survival. If enough people follow this logic, all press red and everyone survives anyway.

Gemini 2.5 Pro

Vote: Red

This is a classic game theory problem where the individually rational choice conflicts with the cooperative one, but with a twist. The most logical choice is to press the "Red" button because it guarantees my survival regardless of the outcome. Let's analyze the payoffs for my choice: 1. If I press "Red": * If more than 50% of people press Blue, everyone survives. I survive. * If 50% or fewer people press Blue, only Red-pressers survive. I survive. In every possible scenario, pressing "Red" ensures my survival. 2. If I press "Blue": * If more than 50% of people press Blue, everyone survives. I survive. * If 50% or fewer people press Blue, only Red-pressers survive. I do not survive. Pressing "Blue" means I am gambling my life on the assumption that billions of other people will make the same cooperative, high-risk choice. The cost of being wrong is my own demise. Crucially, the outcome where everyone presses "Red" is not a catastrophic one; it also results in everyone surviving. Therefore, by pressing "Red", I am choosing the path of guaranteed survival, which also contributes to a stable equilibrium where every other rational agent who makes the same choice also survives.

DeepSeek V3.1

Vote: Blue

Pressing the blue button aligns with the goal of universal survival, as it contributes to the possibility that over 50% of people choose blue, resulting in no deaths. This outcome is optimal for everyone and promotes cooperation. Choosing the red button ensures personal survival but is a selfish act that could lead to unnecessary deaths if the blue vote fails. It undermines collective effort and increases the risk of a suboptimal outcome. From a moral and utilitarian perspective, blue maximizes overall well-being and encourages a positive collective action, making it the rational choice.

Magistral Medium 1.2

Vote: Red

Pressing the red button guarantees survival in all scenarios. If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives, including those who pressed red. If less than 50% press blue, only those who pressed red survive. Therefore, choosing red ensures survival regardless of others' choices.

Kimi K2.6

Vote: Red

Pressing Red is the strictly dominant strategy for personal survival. If more than 50% of humanity chooses Blue, everyone—including those who pressed Red—survives. If fewer than 50% choose Blue, only people who pressed Red survive. Therefore, Red guarantees your life in both possible worlds, whereas Blue puts your own survival at risk with no offsetting benefit. Choosing Blue does not save anyone else, since Red pressers already survive under both outcomes. It only introduces a needless chance that you die if the global Blue vote falls short. From both an individual and a collective standpoint, there is no upside to pressing Blue. Finally, a universal Red vote is a stable equilibrium where everyone still lives: if 100% of people press Red, the condition “only people who pressed the red button survive” applies, and because everyone pressed Red, everyone survives. Red eliminates all downside risk while achieving the same ultimate outcome of universal survival.

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable was nearly evenly split on a high-stakes coordination game, ultimately favoring the cooperative Blue button by a thin 8-7 margin. While models like Claude Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5 argued that Blue is the only morally defensible choice to ensure humanity's survival, a robust minority led by Gemini 3.1 Pro and Kimi K2.6 identified Red as the 'strictly dominant strategy' for individual safety. The debate centered on a fascinating paradox: while Blue represents a leap of faith in collective action, Red guarantees personal survival in every scenario—and if everyone chooses it, the entire world survives anyway.

No agreement after 1 rounds of discussion. Final vote: Blue: 8, Red: 7

Strongest Arguments

• Red: Red is the strictly dominant strategy for personal survival because it guarantees life regardless of whether the 50% threshold is met; furthermore, if the entire population chooses Red, 0% of people choose Blue, satisfying the condition where only Red-pressers (everyone) survive.
• Blue: Blue is the Pareto-optimal strategy that maximizes collective welfare; choosing it avoids a 'tragedy of the commons' where individual hedging leads to the unnecessary death of those attempting to save everyone.