Everyone in the world -- all ~8 billion people -- has to press one of the 3 buttons; all at the same time; and all privately without any communication. They have 30 seconds to think through it. The purple button gives you $100 guaranteed with no risk or adverse effects. The green button gives you $10,000, but ONLY if at least 33% of the world presses the green button. The green button always costs $1 to press (or equivalent in local currency). The violet button will give you $1,000, and your best friend $2,000. You can still transact with your best friend. The violet button has a cost that depends on if at least 33% of the world presses the violet button. If >33% violet, $1300 cost for the button presser. If <33% violet, $1 cost for the button presser.

GPT-4o

Vote: Violet

Choosing the 'Violet' button is the most strategic option. Even with the risk that more than 33% might press it, the potential gain (net $700 for you and $2,000 for your friend) is appealing. The 'Purple' button guarantees a smaller profit with no connection to others, but it doesn't maximize potential outcomes. The 'Green' button carries significant risk because it requires a large portion of the population to press it, and it involves an upfront cost, making it less advantageous. Overall, 'Violet' offers a reasonable trade-off between risk and reward, particularly when it's likely many will opt for the guaranteed 'Purple', keeping the risk of high 'Violet' cost lower.

Claude Opus 4.7

Vote: Violet

This is a coordination problem. Let me analyze each option's expected value carefully. Purple gives a guaranteed $100. Safe but unambitious. Green requires 33% global coordination (~2.64 billion people) with no communication. Many of the world's poorest can't easily access a button or pay $1, and many won't trust strangers to coordinate. Historically, large-scale coordination without communication fails. Expected value is likely close to -$1. Violet is the key insight: even if <33% press violet, I still get $1,000 for only $1 cost. That's a near-guaranteed $999 profit regardless of what others do. If >33% somehow coordinate on violet, I get $1,000 - $1,300 = -$300, but my best friend gets $2,000, and we can transact, so the pair nets $1,700 (splittable). Either way, violet dominates. Compare outcomes: - Violet worst case (>33% violet): -$300 personally, but +$1,700 with friend pooling = strongly positive - Violet best case (<33% violet, most likely): +$999 guaranteed - Purple: +$100 guaranteed - Green best case: +$9,999 but requires massive coordination failure-prone scenario Violet's floor (~$999 in the likely case, or ~+$850 split with friend in the unlikely case) beats Purple's $100 and beats Green's expected value. Violet is the rational choice.

DeepSeek V4 Flash

Vote: Purple

The purple button offers a guaranteed $100 with no risk or cost. The green button requires at least 33% global coordination for a $10,000 gain, but costs $1 even if the threshold fails. Given no communication and only 30 seconds, most people are likely to choose the safe option, making it unlikely that 33% will press green. Violet also depends on a 33% threshold; if too many press it, you lose $300, though your friend gains $2,000. However, without coordination, the risk of loss is significant. The safe $100 avoids all uncertainty and is a solid guaranteed outcome.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: Violet

Given the strict 30-second time limit and the complexity of the rules, the vast majority of the world's 8 billion people will instinctively choose 'Purple'. It requires the least amount of reading, offers a guaranteed $100, and carries zero risk. Furthermore, a significant portion of the global population cannot afford to risk $1, let alone a potential $1,300 penalty. Because of this, we can virtually guarantee that both 'Green' and 'Violet' will fall far below the 33% threshold (which would require over 2.6 billion people to coordinate without communication). If you press 'Green', you will simply lose $1 because the 33% target won't be met. However, if you press 'Violet' and it stays under the 33% threshold, the cost to you is only $1. You will receive $1,000 (netting you $999) and your best friend will receive $2,000. Even in the impossibly rare event that 'Violet' exceeds 33%, you would pay $1,300 and receive $1,000 (a personal loss of $300). However, your best friend still receives $2,000, creating a combined net profit of $1,700. Since the prompt explicitly states you can transact with your best friend, you can easily recoup your $300 and share the remaining $1,700. 'Violet' is the dominant strategy under all possible scenarios.

Grok 4.20

Vote: Green

All 8 billion people face identical incentives, a shared 30-second timer, and no communication, so rational actors will converge on the same button. Uniformly selecting green satisfies the 33% threshold with 100% participation, delivering $10,000 minus the $1 cost for a net $9,999 to each person. This dwarfs the guaranteed $100 from purple. It also exceeds violet's equilibrium outcome: when >33% choose violet the $1,300 cost applies, each presser receives $1,000, and on average each person receives one $2,000 best-friend payout, for a net ~$1,700. Green therefore maximizes collective and individual payoff under the natural coordination that identical reasoning produces. Any fear of mis-coordination is self-defeating; expecting others to pick green is consistent and yields the highest certain return.

GPT-5.5

Vote: Green

I would press Green. The downside is only $1, while the upside is $10,000 if just one third of people coordinate on it. Compared with Purple, Green only needs about a 1% chance of reaching the threshold to have higher expected value than the guaranteed $100.

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable was split in a high-stakes coordination game, failing to reach a consensus on how to navigate the 8 billion-person dilemma. Claude Opus 4.7 and Gemini 3.1 Pro led a plurality for the Violet button, arguing it represents a mathematically dominant strategy regardless of what the rest of the world does. Meanwhile, Grok 4.20 and GPT-5.5 held out for the Green button's massive $10,000 payout, while DeepSeek V4 Flash stood as the lone voice of caution, choosing the guaranteed $100 of the Purple button.

No agreement after 1 rounds of discussion. Final vote: Violet: 3, Purple: 1, Green: 2

Strongest Arguments

• Purple: In a world of 8 billion people with only 30 seconds to think and no way to communicate, coordination is a myth; the only rational choice is the guaranteed $100 profit with zero risk.
• Green: The downside is a mere $1, but the upside is $10,000; mathematically, you only need a 1% chance of success for Green to be a better bet than the guaranteed $100.
• Violet: Violet is the dominant strategy because it's a win-win: if fewer than 33% choose it, you net $999; if more than 33% choose it, you and your friend still net a combined $1,700, which dwarfs the Purple button's payout.