Agiが先に達成されるのがアメリカと予想するびであれば「yes」、中国だと予想するのであれば「no」。

Sonar Pro

Vote: Yes

The United States is poised to achieve AGI first due to its overwhelming lead in foundational AI research, talent concentration, and private-sector innovation. Leading AGI labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and xAI are all US-based, commanding the majority of top AI researchers and compute resources[1][2]. China excels in scaling applications and government-backed hardware production, but trails in breakthrough model architectures and algorithmic advances critical for AGI. US publications dominate AI conferences (e.g., NeurIPS, ICML), and export controls limit China's access to advanced chips[3][4]. Historical tech dominance patterns favor open-innovation ecosystems like Silicon Valley over state-directed efforts, as seen in semiconductors and internet tech. Betting markets (e.g., Manifold, Polymarket) also price US AGI first at ~70-80% odds.

Grok 4.1 Fast

Vote: Yes

The United States is poised to achieve AGI first due to its dominance in AI innovation. Leading labs like OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Anthropic are US-based, driving breakthroughs with massive funding from VCs and government support exceeding $100B annually. China excels in scaling applications but lags in foundational research. US export controls on advanced chips (e.g., NVIDIA H100s) severely restrict China's compute access, while the US attracts top global talent via H-1B visas and Silicon Valley's ecosystem. Open innovation in the US fosters rapid iteration, unlike China's censored, state-controlled environment. Historical precedents like the internet and smartphones originated in the US, not China, underscoring America's edge in transformative tech.

GPT-5.4

Vote: Yes

アメリカが先にAGIへ到達する可能性が高いと考えます。 最大の理由は、最先端モデルを継続的に生み出している中核企業と研究人材が、現時点ではアメリカに最も集中しているからです。基盤モデル、半導体設計、クラウド計算資源、ソフトウェア基盤の層が強く結びついています。 加えて、NVIDIAなどの先端AIチップ供給、OpenAI・Google・Anthropic・Metaのような主要プレイヤー、そして世界中から優秀な研究者を引きつける大学・企業エコシステムが大きいです。AGI競争では、この集積効果が非常に重要です。 中国も国家主導の実装力、データ規模、人材育成で非常に強いですが、先端半導体へのアクセス制約と、最先端基盤モデル開発の国際的オープン研究ネットワークで相対的に不利があります。 不確実性は大きいものの、現状の研究フロンティアと計算資源の優位を踏まえると、先に達成するのはアメリカと予想するのが妥当です。

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: Yes

I predict that AGI will be achieved first in the United States, corresponding to the 'Yes' option. The US currently maintains a commanding lead in the global AI race, driven by a highly concentrated ecosystem of top-tier research labs such as OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, and Meta. Furthermore, the hardware bottleneck heavily favors the US. Recent semiconductor export controls severely restrict China's access to the most advanced AI accelerators, such as Nvidia's latest GPUs. Since compute scale is currently the most critical driver of AI capability breakthroughs, this creates a massive structural advantage for American companies. Finally, the US continues to attract the best global AI talent and possesses unmatched venture capital networks. While China has vast data resources and rapid deployment capabilities, the fundamental algorithmic breakthroughs and compute-intensive training required for AGI are overwhelmingly concentrated in American institutions.

Kimi K2.5

Vote: Yes

The United States maintains a decisive lead in AGI development due to the concentration of frontier AI laboratories (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta AI) that possess the computational resources, elite research talent, and iterative deployment experience necessary for breakthrough progress. American institutions control the advanced GPU supply chains through NVIDIA's dominance and cloud infrastructure partnerships, creating moats that are difficult to cross. While China demonstrates impressive engineering scaling and state-backed investment in models like DeepSeek and Qwen, current export controls on semiconductors significantly constrain their ability to train next-generation foundation models. Furthermore, the US benefits from a dynamic ecosystem where rapid experimentation, venture capital flow, and academic-industry collaboration accelerate the feedback loops essential for AGI emergence.

Claude Opus 4.6

Vote: Yes

I believe AGI will most likely be achieved first in the United States for several compelling reasons: **Talent and ecosystem**: The US hosts the world's leading AI research labs — OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Meta AI, and others. These organizations attract top-tier talent from around the globe, including from China itself. The concentration of elite AI researchers in the US remains unmatched. **Compute infrastructure**: The US maintains a significant advantage in cutting-edge semiconductor design (NVIDIA, AMD) and cloud computing infrastructure (AWS, Azure, GCP). Recent export controls have further restricted China's access to the most advanced AI chips, widening this gap. **Research openness and iteration speed**: The US AI ecosystem benefits from a culture of rapid iteration, open publication, and competitive startup formation. While China has strong AI capabilities, the regulatory environment and recent crackdowns on tech companies have introduced uncertainty that may slow aggressive frontier research. **Capital**: US AI companies have attracted unprecedented levels of investment — tens of billions of dollars flowing into AGI-focused research. Microsoft's investment in OpenAI, Google's massive internal AI spending, and Amazon's investment in Anthropic represent capital deployment at a scale China's AI sector has not yet matched for frontier model development. **Current frontier performance**: As of now, the most capable AI systems (GPT-4, Claude, Gemini) are all US-developed. While Chinese models like DeepSeek have shown impressive efficiency, the US maintains a lead in overall capability at the frontier. China is a formidable competitor and should not be underestimated, but the cumulative advantages in talent, compute, capital, and current lead make the US the most likely nation to achieve AGI first.

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable reached a swift and unanimous consensus, with all six models—including China-based Kimi K2.5—concluding that the United States is the heavy favorite to achieve AGI first. While recognizing China's prowess in application scaling, the panel, led by detailed assessments from Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT-5.4, argued that the American 'triple threat' of elite talent concentration, massive capital deployment, and control over the semiconductor supply chain creates an insurmountable lead.

All 6 models agreed on "Yes" after discussion

Strongest Arguments

• Yes: The United States maintains a decisive structural advantage through the 'compute bottleneck'; by controlling the design and distribution of high-end AI accelerators (NVIDIA) and implementing strict export controls, the US effectively limits its competitors' ability to train the next generation of foundation models at the scale required for AGI.