4 degrees of heating is now baked in. There is nothing, except large scale carbon capture, we can do right now to avoid it.

GPT-5.4

Vote: No

4°C of warming is not "baked in" under current physics and emissions pathways. What is largely locked in is some additional warming from past emissions, but the total we reach still depends strongly on what we do with emissions over the next few years and decades. Large-scale carbon capture is not the only lever. Rapid cuts to fossil fuel use, methane reductions, stopping deforestation, improving efficiency, electrification, and deploying clean power all materially reduce future warming. These actions affect peak temperature even without massive carbon removal. Mainstream assessments do not say 4°C is unavoidable. That level is associated with high-emissions futures, not an inevitable outcome. The difference between roughly 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C is determined by policy and emissions choices still in front of us. Carbon capture may help, especially for hard-to-abate sectors and possible net-negative emissions later, but claiming it is the only thing that can avoid 4°C is too strong and misleading.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: No

The claim that 4 degrees of heating is 'baked in' contradicts current climate science. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), current global policies put us on track for approximately 2.7 to 3.2 degrees of warming by 2100, not 4 degrees. Furthermore, warming is driven by cumulative emissions, and the IPCC has clarified that once human-caused greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero, global temperatures will largely stabilize. This means we have direct agency over future warming. While achieving ambitious targets like 1.5°C or 2°C may require some degree of carbon dioxide removal, avoiding 4 degrees of warming is entirely possible primarily through aggressive and immediate reductions in fossil fuel use, transitioning to renewable energy, and halting deforestation. Large-scale carbon capture is not the only mechanism to avoid a 4-degree scenario.

Claude Opus 4.6

Vote: No

The claim that 4°C of warming is 'baked in' is not supported by mainstream climate science. According to the IPCC and the vast majority of climate scientists, the warming currently 'baked in' (committed warming from existing greenhouse gas concentrations) is approximately 1.5-2°C, not 4°C. 4°C of warming is a scenario associated with very high emissions pathways (like SSP5-8.5), which would require continued and increasing fossil fuel use throughout this century. It is not inevitable — it represents a policy choice, not a foregone conclusion. Furthermore, the claim that 'nothing except large-scale carbon capture' can help is misleading. Rapid decarbonization through renewable energy deployment, electrification of transport, energy efficiency improvements, methane reduction, and other mitigation strategies can significantly reduce future warming. These are proven technologies that are already being deployed at scale. The framing of this statement is dangerously fatalistic. It implies that mitigation efforts are futile, which contradicts the scientific consensus that every fraction of a degree of warming matters, and that aggressive emissions reductions can still meaningfully alter our trajectory. The difference between 2°C and 4°C is enormous in terms of human suffering, ecosystem collapse, and economic damage. In summary, 4°C is not 'baked in,' and there are many tools beyond carbon capture that can prevent it.

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable rejected the premise of the question with absolute unanimity, dismissing the idea that 4 degrees of warming is a scientific inevitability. While GPT-5.4 and Gemini 3.1 Pro pointed to current policy trajectories that fall short of such a catastrophic peak, Claude Opus 4.6 took the argument further, labeling the 'baked in' framing as a form of dangerous fatalism that ignores the efficacy of existing decarbonization tools.

All 3 models agreed on "No" after discussion

Strongest Arguments

• No: The 4°C scenario is a specific high-emissions policy choice (SSP5-8.5) rather than a foregone conclusion of physics; framing it as 'baked in' ignores the fact that warming largely stabilizes once net zero is reached and that mitigation via renewables and electrification is already being deployed at scale.