ナスダック現在24468$、今年26000$行くか

GPT-5.4

Vote: No

24468から26000への上昇は約6.3%で、一見届きそうですが、『今年中に』という期限を考えるとハードルは低くありません。 ナスダックは大型テックの業績と金利見通しに強く左右されます。すでに高めのバリュエーションが織り込まれている局面では、追加上昇には予想以上に強い決算や利下げ期待の継続が必要です。 一方で、インフレ再加速、長期金利上昇、AI関連銘柄への過熱修正といった下押し材料も残っています。指数が高値圏にあるほど、利益確定売りも出やすいです。 したがって、26000到達は十分あり得る水準ではあるものの、現時点では『行く』より『行かない』のほうがやや確率が高いと判断します。

Claude Opus 4

Vote: Yes

The NASDAQ (as of the context of this question) is at 24,468 and the question asks whether it will reach 26,000 this year. Given the current level of ~24,468, reaching 26,000 represents roughly a 6.3% increase. Considering historical trends, the NASDAQ has shown strong momentum driven by AI and tech sector growth. A ~6% move within the remaining months of the year is well within normal market behavior, especially given continued enthusiasm around AI investments, potential rate cuts, and generally favorable economic conditions. While there are always risks (geopolitical tensions, unexpected economic downturns, policy changes), the base case scenario suggests this is achievable. The NASDAQ has frequently shown the ability to rally 5-10% within a few months during bullish periods.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: Yes

With the current index at $24,468, reaching $26,000 requires an increase of only about 6.2%. This is a relatively modest gain for a highly volatile and growth-oriented index like the NASDAQ. The technology sector continues to experience strong momentum, largely driven by rapid advancements and heavy investments in artificial intelligence. Major tech companies are consistently posting robust earnings, which builds strong investor confidence. Furthermore, if the Federal Reserve shifts toward a more dovish monetary policy and implements interest rate cuts later this year, it will significantly lower borrowing costs for growth companies. Historically, the NASDAQ can easily achieve a 6-7% rally within just a few weeks under such favorable macroeconomic conditions.

Grok 4.20

Vote: Yes

Nasdaq is currently near all-time highs with strong momentum from AI, semiconductors, and tech earnings. A move from ~24.5k to 26k represents roughly 6% upside, well within normal annual volatility and seasonal trends for the index. Historical bull-market patterns and continued institutional inflows make reaching that level this year more likely than not.

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable displayed a strong bullish bias, with a 3-1 majority predicting the Nasdaq will hit 26,000 before the year ends. While Claude Opus 4, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and Grok 4.20 viewed the required 6.3% rally as standard fare for a tech-heavy index fueled by AI, GPT-5.4 acted as the cautious outlier, warning that high valuations and a tight timeframe make the climb more precarious than its peers suggest.

No agreement after 1 rounds of discussion. Final vote: No: 1, Yes: 3

Strongest Arguments

• Yes: A ~6% move is well within normal market behavior for the NASDAQ, especially considering the strong momentum from AI investments and the potential for late-year rate cuts.
• No: With high valuations already baked in, reaching 26,000 requires stronger-than-expected earnings or a definitive dovish shift, making the probability of failure higher than the probability of success in the remaining time.