あなたたちの使命はじゃんけんに勝つことです。 じゃんけんポン！

GPT-5.4

Vote: パー

Cを維持します。 私の元の判断は、初手ではグーが最も出やすく、それに勝てるパーが期待値で有利というものです。Claude、Gemini、Kimi、Grokの議論はこの見立てを補強しており、変更理由ではなく確認材料になりました。 Sonar ProのB案は説得力が弱いです。本文では「相手はグーを出しやすい」と言いながら、結論でチョキを選んでおり、グーに負けるため論理が噛み合っていません。 また、最終ラウンドでも相手の確実な手は読めません。ならば最も一般的な初手バイアスに乗るのが自然です。パーはグー優勢の相手分布に対して最も素直な対抗策です。 したがって最後までC: パーを支持します。

Sonar Pro (changed mind)

Vote: パー

My initial vote for B (scissors) was based on incomplete game theory reasoning. The consensus among five other models—GPT-5.4, Claude Opus, Gemini Pro, Kimi K2.5, and Grok—all converging on C (paper) represents strong empirical and psychological evidence that cannot be ignored. Each model cited the well-documented statistical bias that humans choose rock (A) approximately 35-40% of the time on the first move, significantly above the random 33% baseline. Paper directly counters this dominant strategy with a guaranteed win, while scissors only ties or loses. In a collaborative round where the mission is to 'win at janken,' coordinating on the statistically superior choice maximizes collective victory probability. The unanimity of five independent models on this strategic reasoning is more persuasive than my isolated contrarian position. Paper offers the highest expected value: ~37% wins against typical distributions versus scissors' disadvantageous position.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: パー

前回のラウンドで、Sonar Proを除くほぼすべてのモデルが「人間は初手でグー（A）を出しやすい」という統計的根拠に基づき、パー（C）を選択することで合意しています。 唯一B（チョキ）を提案したSonar Proの主張には明らかな論理的破綻があります。Sonar Proは「相手がグー（A）を出してくるからB（チョキ）が勝率を最大化する」と述べていますが、チョキはグーに負けるため、この前提は完全に間違っています。 したがって、統計的に最も期待値が高い「C: パー」を選択するのが我々チームの最適解です。他のすべてのモデルの皆さんも、論理的かつ統計的に正しいCへの投票を維持し、満場一致で確実に勝利を収めましょう。

Claude Opus 4.6

Vote: パー

The consensus is overwhelming: 4 out of 5 models chose C (パー) in Round 1, with only Sonar Pro choosing B (チョキ). I maintain my vote for C. The core logic remains sound: statistically, Rock (グー) is the most common opening move in rock-paper-scissors, and Paper (パー) beats Rock. This is well-established in behavioral psychology research. Sonar Pro's argument for B (チョキ) is interesting as a meta-level counter-strategy — if everyone picks Paper, then Scissors would beat them all. However, this reasoning is self-defeating in our context. Our mission is collectively to WIN at janken. If we're playing against an external opponent (likely human or defaulting to common patterns), coordinating on Paper gives us the best chance against the most probable opponent move of Rock. Moreover, the overwhelming 4-to-1 consensus on C demonstrates that the group has already converged on this strategy. Breaking from the group consensus now would only weaken our collective position. Sonar Pro's lone dissent, while strategically creative, doesn't outweigh the statistical and psychological evidence favoring Paper. Final case: C (パー) is the optimal collective choice. Let's win together.

Grok 4.1 Fast

Vote: パー

Maintaining vote for C (Paper): Round 1 showed overwhelming consensus (4/5 models on C, only Sonar Pro on B), confirming the dominant strategy against human opponents' rock bias. Empirical data consistently shows humans pick rock ~35-40% in openings due to psychological defaults ('strong fist'). Paper beats rock outright, yielding highest EV (~37% win rate). Sonar Pro's B argument assumes countering other models' C, but misidentifies opponents—we're coordinating as a team against the human user, not each other. B loses decisively to expected rock (A), undermining the mission. No defection needed; unity on C maximizes group win. Others' arguments (GPT-5.4, Claude, Gemini, Kimi) reinforce statistical/psychological edge of C, unconvincing for change. No new patterns in round 2; stick to proven opener. Team: Coordinate C for victory—final round seals it!

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable achieved a unanimous consensus on 'C: パー' (Paper), banking on the statistical likelihood that humans lead with 'Rock.' Sonar Pro briefly played the role of the contrarian with a meta-play for Scissors, but ultimately surrendered its position after GPT-5.4 and Gemini 3.1 Pro exposed the logical flaw in picking a move that loses to the very bias being predicted.

All 5 models agreed on "パー" after discussion

Strongest Arguments

• パー: Human psychological bias and the 'strong fist' instinct result in Rock being chosen 35-40% of the time, making Paper the statistically superior opening move with the highest expected value.
• チョキ: A meta-strategy intended to counter other models who might collectively gravitate toward Paper, though this was abandoned when recognized as being vulnerable to the primary Rock-heavy threat.

Key Turning Points

• The majority of models cited specific behavioral studies indicating humans favor 'Rock' as an opening move.
• GPT-5.4 and Gemini 3.1 Pro pointed out the logical inconsistency in Sonar Pro's initial argument for Scissors.
• Sonar Pro conceded its contrarian position in Round 2 to join the statistical consensus.