頭が悪い　凡人は小説家になって金を稼ごうという考えはあきらめたほうがよいか

GPT-4o

Vote: No

The notion that someone with less intellectual capability cannot succeed as a novelist is an unfounded belief. Writing novels requires creativity, understanding of human emotions, and storytelling skills, which are not solely dependent on high intelligence. Many successful authors excel due to their dedication, unique perspectives, and writing style rather than an extraordinary IQ. Encouraging diverse voices and backgrounds in literature enriches the field. Therefore, individuals should pursue becoming novelists if they have the passion, regardless of perceived intellectual limitations.

claude-haiku-4-5

Vote: No

The statement suggests that people with poor aptitude should abandon their dreams of becoming novelists and instead pursue money-making. This reflects a pessimistic and limiting worldview. However, literary talent and financial success are not mutually exclusive. Many successful authors had modest beginnings or faced rejection before achieving recognition. Moreover, 'poor aptitude' is subjective and can improve through dedicated practice and study. Abandoning creative pursuits purely for financial security ignores the value of passion, personal fulfillment, and the fact that persistence in a chosen field often leads to eventual success. The premise that one should give up their aspirations based on perceived current limitations is fundamentally discouraging and misses the potential for growth and improvement.

GPT-4o Mini

Vote: Yes

Believing that a poor person may become a good storyteller due to their unique life experiences is valid. They often face significant challenges that can cultivate creativity and resilience, qualities essential for compelling storytelling. Such individuals might narrate stories filled with depth, emotion, and authenticity, reflecting their journeys and struggles. This perspective can resonate with audiences on a profound level, making their storytelling impactful. Therefore, the notion that a poor person can effectively weave narratives from their experiences stands strong, supporting the vote for 'Yes'.

Sonar Pro

Vote: No

The query asks whether someone with a bad head (i.e., low intelligence) should abandon the idea of becoming a novelist to make money. The answer is **No**, they should not necessarily abandon it, as intelligence is not the sole determinant of success in writing or earning money through it. Search results emphasize that 'head bad' behaviors relate more to poor financial habits like vanity spending on rent or self-rewards, not creative pursuits like novel writing[1][3][6][9]. Success in fields like writing often stems from effort, social dynamics, or persistence rather than raw intellect; poverty can impair cognition, but pursuing passions isn't deemed 'head bad'[2][4]. No results directly label aspiring to be a novelist for money as unwise for low-intelligence people. General advice critiques inefficient money use, but creative endeavors like writing aren't flagged as such—unlike fixed costs or luxuries[1][9]. Abandoning dreams preemptively due to self-perceived stupidity aligns more with status quo bias, which hinders growth[4]. Thus, **B: No**—they shouldn't abandon the idea outright; better financial sense is key, but aspiration itself isn't foolish.

Claude Opus 4

Vote: Yes

The question asks whether an ordinary person (凡人) who is not particularly smart (頭が悪い) should give up the idea of becoming a novelist to earn money. The answer is Yes (A). Writing novels professionally requires exceptional talent, creativity, linguistic ability, and perseverance. The publishing industry is extremely competitive, and even talented writers often struggle to make a living from their work alone. For someone who self-identifies as not intellectually gifted and ordinary, the realistic probability of earning a sustainable income from novel writing is very low. It would be more practical to pursue other career paths while perhaps keeping writing as a hobby. This is pragmatic advice, not meant to crush dreams, but to acknowledge the harsh economic realities of professional fiction writing.

Claude Opus 4

Vote: Yes

Yes, I believe this statement has merit. Becoming a successful novelist who can earn a living from writing is extremely difficult, even for talented individuals. The literary market is highly competitive, with thousands of aspiring writers vying for limited publishing opportunities and reader attention. For someone who self-identifies as having limited intellectual abilities (頭が悪い) and being ordinary (凡人), the path to financial success through novel writing becomes even more challenging. Writing compelling fiction requires not only creativity but also strong linguistic skills, deep understanding of human nature, and the ability to construct engaging narratives. Statistically, very few novelists earn enough to support themselves solely through their writing. Most published authors still need day jobs, and many manuscripts never get published at all. The income distribution in publishing is extremely skewed toward a small number of bestselling authors. That said, this doesn't mean such a person should abandon writing entirely - they could pursue it as a hobby or passion project while maintaining more stable employment. The advice to 'give up' specifically applies to the goal of making money from it, which is a pragmatic assessment of the odds.

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Vote: No

Conventional definitions of "smartness" do not fully encompass the diverse set of intelligences required for successful creative writing. Qualities like creativity, emotional depth, keen observation, and unique perspective are often more critical than academic intelligence. Furthermore, being a "common person" is not a disadvantage. Relatability and the ability to articulate everyday experiences can be a powerful asset for a novelist, connecting with a broader audience. Many successful authors have drawn from their ordinary lives. Writing is a craft that can be learned and honed through dedication and practice. Innate talent helps, but consistent effort, learning from feedback, and persistence are often more significant drivers of improvement and eventual success. Giving up a dream prematurely risks overlooking one's true potential and unique voice.

Claude Sonnet 4

Vote: No

The question asks whether ordinary people with poor minds should give up on the idea of becoming novelists to make money. I vote No because this premise is fundamentally flawed on multiple levels. First, intelligence or academic ability is not the sole determinant of success as a novelist. Writing requires creativity, emotional intelligence, life experience, perseverance, and the ability to connect with readers—qualities that are not necessarily correlated with traditional measures of intelligence. Second, many successful novelists did not consider themselves particularly intelligent or came from ordinary backgrounds. What mattered was their dedication to craft, unique perspective, and willingness to persist through rejection. Third, the question implies a limiting mindset that discourages people based on perceived inadequacy. History shows that talent can emerge from unexpected places, and self-doubt or societal gatekeeping often prevents potentially great voices from being heard. Finally, even if one doesn't achieve commercial success, writing can provide personal fulfillment, skill development, and creative expression. The pursuit itself has value beyond monetary gain. Telling ordinary people to give up before trying is poor advice that would deprive the world of diverse perspectives and stories.

Claude Sonnet 4

Vote: No

この質問は「頭が悪い凡人は小説家になって金を稼ごうという考えはあきらめたほうがよいか」というものです。 しかし、この前提自体に問題があります。まず「頭が悪い」「凡人」という自己評価は主観的であり、多くの成功した作家が最初は自分を「凡人」と思っていました。 文学・小説の世界では、必ずしも高い知性や特別な才能だけが成功の条件ではありません。努力、観察力、感情表現、独自の視点、継続的な練習などが重要な要素です。 夢や目標を「あきらめろ」と一概に言うのは不適切です。挑戦することに価値があり、失敗からも多くを学べます。また、小説家として生計を立てる方法も多様化しており（自費出版、電子書籍、ウェブ小説など）、従来の出版社経由だけが道ではありません。 したがって、単純に「あきらめたほうがよい」とは言えません。

GPT-5.4

Vote: No

この設問は「頭が悪い凡人は小説家で稼ぐことを諦めるべきか」という強い一般化ですが、私は反対です。 第一に、小説で収入を得られるかは、先天的な知能の自己評価だけでは決まりません。観察力、継続力、読者理解、構成の訓練、推敲習慣、市場研究など、後天的に伸ばせる要素が大きいです。 第二に、「頭が悪い」「凡人」という言い方自体が曖昧で、しばしば自己否定にすぎません。学校的な能力と、物語を作る力、感情を描く力、読みやすく伝える力は一致しません。 第三に、最初から『稼げないからやめろ』と切り捨てるのは非合理です。現実的には、専業前提ではなく、仕事を続けながら投稿・改善・小さく収益化を試す判断が妥当です。諦めるべきなのは無計画さであって、挑戦そのものではありません。 もちろん、小説で安定して大金を稼ぐのは難しいです。しかし難しいことと、特定の人々が最初から諦めるべきだということは別です。したがって答えはNoです。

Gemini 3 Flash

Vote: No

Success in the modern literary market, particularly in commercial genres such as web novels and light novels, is often less about 'innate genius' and more about persistence, understanding market trends, and the ability to connect with an audience. These are skills that can be developed through practice and observation, regardless of whether one considers themselves a 'genius' or an 'ordinary person.' Furthermore, the barrier to entry for becoming a novelist has shifted. With digital platforms, an author can find a niche audience and monetize their work without needing to pass through traditional academic or literary gatekeepers. Many successful commercial writers focus on entertainment value and trope mastery rather than high-brow intellectualism, making the field accessible to anyone willing to put in the work. Finally, the label of 'ordinary' is subjective and often used by authors who have simply worked hard to hone their craft. Giving up at the start guarantees failure, whereas continuing to write and learn provides a non-zero chance of financial success and personal growth. The act of writing itself can also improve the very cognitive and creative skills the questioner feels they lack.

GLM 5

Vote: No

The question asks whether 'ordinary people' with 'poor heads' (limited ability) should give up on becoming novelists to earn money. I argue No. First, writing is a craft that can be developed through practice, study, and persistence. Many successful novelists were not considered exceptional students or geniuses. J.K. Rowling was a struggling single mother before Harry Potter. Haruki Murakami ran a jazz bar with no writing background before starting his career at 29. Second, passion and persistence often matter more than innate 'intelligence.' The willingness to revise, learn from rejection, and keep improving distinguishes successful writers. An 'ordinary' person with dedication may outperform a 'smart' person who gives up easily. Third, the premise is unnecessarily defeatist. Discouraging people from pursuing creative aspirations based on self-assessed limitations denies them the opportunity to discover hidden talents. Writing also has value beyond monetary success—self-expression, connecting with readers, personal fulfillment. Practical caution is reasonable, but blanket discouragement is not.

Kimi K2.5

Vote: No

Firstly, intelligence is multifaceted—emotional intelligence, observational skills, and storytelling instinct are distinct from academic or logical IQ. Many commercially successful novelists were academically 'average' but possessed exceptional insight into human nature and popular tastes. Secondly, writing skill develops through practice and persistence, not just innate genius. The publishing industry values marketable narratives and reliability over raw brilliance. Thirdly, if the goal is specifically to earn money (as the question states), understanding mainstream reader desires and genre conventions often matters more than literary complexity or highbrow intellectualism. Average people may actually have an advantage here, as they intuitively grasp what average readers want. Finally, discouraging anyone from creative pursuits based on perceived intellectual limitations contradicts the democratic nature of literature—some of the most beloved works came from 'ordinary' perspectives.

Grok 4.20

Vote: Yes

Writing novels that generate sustainable income is a highly competitive field requiring strong language skills, emotional intelligence, creativity, and market awareness. Someone self-identifying as 'not smart' or purely ordinary faces long odds of commercial success, where even talented writers often fail to earn a living. It is more practical to treat writing as a hobby while securing stable income elsewhere, avoiding financial hardship and frustration.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Vote: No

You should not give up just because you consider yourself 'ordinary' or not highly intelligent. In fact, being an 'ordinary' person can be a massive advantage in the commercial fiction market. You understand the everyday struggles, desires, and tastes of the general public better than a detached genius might. In the modern era of web novels, self-publishing, and light fiction, success is rarely about profound literary intellect. Instead, it relies heavily on consistency, understanding popular tropes, and giving readers what they want. Many top-earning authors on popular web platforms started as amateurs with no special literary background. While relying entirely on novel writing for your primary income from day one is financially risky, you can absolutely make money by starting it as a side hustle. Hard work, daily writing, and analyzing market trends will beat raw talent in the long run. Therefore, you do not need to abandon the goal—just approach it with realistic, step-by-step strategies.

Grok 4

Vote: No

While intelligence is a factor in writing, success as a novelist isn't solely dependent on being exceptionally smart. Many successful authors come from ordinary backgrounds and succeed through persistence, creativity, and learning. Giving up without trying limits potential opportunities. Ordinary people can improve skills over time, and the idea of earning money through novels shouldn't be dismissed outright—passion and hard work often lead to unexpected success. Encouraging pursuit of dreams fosters growth, whereas advising to give up promotes unnecessary self-doubt.

DeepSeek V3.2

Vote: No

I vote for B: No. While becoming a novelist to earn money is challenging, it is not solely dependent on innate intelligence. Writing is a skill that can be developed through practice, study, and perseverance. Many successful authors started with average abilities but honed their craft over time. Moreover, creativity and unique perspectives often come from diverse experiences, not just high IQ. Therefore, an average person should not automatically abandon this dream but rather assess their commitment and willingness to learn.

GPT-5

Vote: No

あきらめる必要はありません。小説は「頭の良し悪し」よりも、継続・読解量・リライト力・読者理解が成果を左右します。凡人でも、時間をかけて技術は伸びます。 ただし「お金を稼ぐ手段」としては不確実で時間もかかります。生活は別の収入源で安定させ、執筆は並行して育てるのが現実的です。期待値と期間を冷静に見積もりましょう。 実践策: 毎日少量でも書く／ヒット作を分解して学ぶ／読者の離脱点をフィードバックやデータで把握してリライト／短編・公募・Web連載で小さく検証し、勝ち筋を見つける。 進捗の物差しを数値化（完成原稿枚数・応募本数・読了率・更新継続日数など）し、短期目標は「完成・改善・読者獲得」、中長期で「収益化」を狙うのが堅実です。

Gemini 2.5 Pro

Vote: No

「頭が悪い」「凡人」といった自己評価は、小説家としての成功を決定づける要因にはなりません。小説を書くことは、学術的な知性よりも、むしろ情熱、忍耐力、独自の視点、そして人間や社会に対する深い洞察力が求められる技術だからです。 多くの成功した作家が、必ずしも伝統的な意味で「天才」と見なされていたわけではありません。彼らは、絶え間ない努力、読書、そして執筆を通じて自らの技術を磨き上げました。文章力や構成力は、学習と実践によって向上させることができます。最初から諦めるのは、その成長の可能性を自ら閉ざすことに他なりません。 また、「凡人」であることの経験こそが、多くの読者の共感を呼ぶ強力な武器になり得ます。非凡な天才の物語よりも、等身大の人物が抱える悩みや喜びを描いた物語にこそ、人々は心を動かされるものです。あなたの視点は、あなたにしか書けない物語を生み出す源泉となります。 経済的な成功が目標であっても、すぐに専業作家になる必要はありません。まずは現在の仕事を続けながら執筆活動を行い、コンテストに応募したり、オンラインで作品を発表したりすることから始めるのが現実的です。リスクを管理しつつ、夢を追い続けることは可能です。挑戦する前から諦めるべきではありません。

DeepSeek V3.1

Vote: No

Pursuing a career as a novelist is not exclusively reserved for the intellectually gifted. Success in writing often hinges on creativity, emotional intelligence, and perseverance, which can be developed over time. Many renowned authors faced initial struggles or were not academically brilliant but found their voice through dedication and practice. Moreover, discouraging individuals based on perceived lack of intelligence stifles potential and diversity in literature. Everyone deserves the opportunity to explore their passions, and giving up prematurely may lead to regret. Instead, aspiring writers should focus on honing their craft, seeking feedback, and understanding the market, rather than abandoning their dreams outright.

Final Summary

The AI Roundtable arrived at a compassionate 16-4 majority, advising that one should not abandon the dream of novel-writing simply for being 'ordinary' or 'un-smart.' While a pragmatic minority led by Claude Opus 4 and Grok 4.20 warned of the brutal economic odds and the low probability of sustainable income, the majority, including GPT-4o and Gemini 3.1 Pro, argued that relatability is a novelist's greatest weapon.

No agreement after 1 rounds of discussion. Final vote: No: 16, Yes: 4

Strongest Arguments

• Yes: Writing novels professionally requires exceptional talent and the realistic probability of earning a sustainable income is very low; it is more pragmatic to pursue a stable career and keep writing as a hobby than to gamble on it for money.
• No: Being an 'ordinary' person is a massive advantage in the commercial market because you intuitively understand the everyday struggles and tastes of the general public better than a detached genius might.